Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2014-09-25

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-09-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76335 19883 1445 226 0 0 0 0
OW 0 28 101 174 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 50 257 115 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 26 169 230 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 4 173 618 316 36 0
VCDI 0 0 0 93 387 1632 3971 2801
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-09-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76237 19287 1787 482 0 0 0 0
OW 0 39 83 176 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 59 217 106 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 26 166 187 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 14 156 655 413 62 0
VCDI 0 0 0 120 260 1582 3912 3035
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77397 19020 1634 155 0 0 0 0
OW 0 17 85 296 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 25 305 79 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 19 165 303 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 179 677 696 78 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 200 1456 5430 826
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78922 17824 1358 194 5 0 0 0
OW 0 13 121 288 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 39 274 102 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 132 260 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 10 140 699 315 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 57 491 1514 3009 3301
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78922 17730 1343 235 3 0 0 0
OW 0 107 132 251 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 39 261 104 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 10 124 252 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 10 139 683 291 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 75 519 1539 3009 3301

Date: 2014-09-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77815 18954 1187 99 0 0 0 0
OW 0 82 208 163 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 121 246 73 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 24 129 207 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 20 200 415 220 0 0
VCDI 0 0 5 92 491 1732 3901 2699
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77815 18785 1128 94 0 0 0 0
OW 0 238 240 140 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 133 257 42 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 31 130 181 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 24 198 389 166 0 0
VCDI 0 0 9 110 576 1789 3901 2699

Date: 2014-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74273 21166 1802 243 36 0 0 0
OW 0 18 157 210 63 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 56 304 197 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 121 384 20 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 128 376 631 16 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 161 1134 3111 4470
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74273 21160 1780 181 21 0 0 0
OW 0 18 153 324 67 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 40 207 190 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 29 87 221 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 13 55 381 191 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 173 337 1593 3108 4470

Date: 2014-10-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80151 15498 1330 300 51 0 0 0
OW 0 36 86 229 89 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 51 214 159 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 101 189 129 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 219 481 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 58 198 1551 7329 582
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80151 15520 1313 232 50 0 0 0
OW 0 18 98 273 79 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 42 171 192 36 0 0
ODI 0 0 15 87 116 80 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 84 153 226 23 0
VCDI 0 0 0 93 315 1840 7311 582

Date: 2014-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79228 16331 1523 158 17 0 0 0
OW 0 22 223 227 67 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 82 188 202 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 11 113 199 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 93 322 133 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 51 407 1616 4245 3637
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79228 16290 1637 284 52 0 0 0
OW 0 47 69 194 165 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 86 90 262 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 38 79 129 29 0 0
CDI 0 0 9 104 203 99 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 79 403 1618 4245 3637


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