Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-09-25

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-09-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81346 51984 4368 382 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2040 1257 608 46 0 0 0
VODI 0 223 1017 2614 394 30 0 0
ODI 0 0 44 1063 1673 116 14 0
CDI 0 0 5 310 1841 1962 497 0
VCDI 0 0 0 163 558 3568 12846 16079
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-09-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81524 50274 4531 659 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2452 1139 494 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 460 1092 2275 576 34 0 0
ODI 0 1 76 1097 1445 131 20 0
CDI 0 0 19 371 2000 1781 302 0
VCDI 0 0 0 211 520 3895 14191 15442
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80940 52275 5927 398 2 0 0 0
OW 0 489 1428 1061 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 228 2307 548 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 19 538 1886 303 113 0
CDI 0 0 1 256 1507 2581 510 0
VCDI 0 0 0 47 333 2672 16159 14464
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82338 49398 5907 482 5 0 0 0
OW 0 739 1289 1275 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 412 1942 896 36 0 0
ODI 0 0 7 491 1421 684 16 0
CDI 0 0 11 225 1523 2239 525 0
VCDI 0 0 0 70 630 3006 12441 18974
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82338 49375 6083 678 4 0 0 0
OW 0 738 1106 1235 45 0 0 0
VODI 0 46 403 1637 945 42 0 0
ODI 0 0 23 590 1272 582 19 0
CDI 0 0 11 258 1568 2204 351 0
VCDI 0 0 0 87 685 3137 12612 18974

Date: 2014-09-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81555 49926 5316 326 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1183 1395 900 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 177 725 1824 618 27 0 0
ODI 0 0 58 634 1255 438 0 0
CDI 0 0 21 329 1184 1873 483 0
VCDI 0 0 5 109 769 3398 13725 18787
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81555 49711 5537 410 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1303 1132 887 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 272 671 1605 707 38 0 0
ODI 0 0 144 708 990 414 0 0
CDI 0 0 27 368 1204 1778 266 0
VCDI 0 0 9 144 907 3506 13942 18787

Date: 2014-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78538 53666 6837 628 36 0 0 0
OW 0 68 861 1005 80 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 140 1868 538 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 427 1923 145 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 162 1102 2964 46 0
VCDI 0 0 0 34 285 3248 14489 17955
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78538 51682 5951 518 21 0 0 0
OW 0 1425 772 859 69 0 0 0
VODI 0 619 833 1330 731 4 0 0
ODI 0 10 236 792 1030 226 0 0
CDI 0 0 45 360 1212 1258 65 0
VCDI 0 0 2 265 901 4869 14470 17955

Date: 2014-10-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86345 45646 5712 703 52 0 0 0
OW 0 192 924 1366 142 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 160 1550 648 46 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 426 1613 306 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 168 945 2199 212 5
VCDI 0 0 0 84 423 4685 22228 10261
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86345 43745 4892 545 52 0 0 0
OW 0 1450 878 775 110 0 0 0
VODI 0 626 712 1498 691 71 0 0
ODI 0 21 271 807 1223 283 8 0
CDI 0 0 43 436 958 1197 129 18
VCDI 0 0 3 236 789 5685 22303 10248

Date: 2014-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85258 45424 5616 645 17 0 0 0
OW 0 342 1080 1596 196 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 205 1474 954 89 0 0
ODI 0 0 11 306 1669 323 9 0
CDI 0 0 1 150 874 2002 308 18
VCDI 0 0 0 74 558 3462 16116 18271
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85258 43596 4950 611 110 0 0 0
OW 0 1474 825 619 288 10 0 0
VODI 0 654 745 1520 769 106 0 0
ODI 0 42 341 827 1216 330 29 0
CDI 0 0 52 498 1077 1114 68 0
VCDI 0 0 0 170 808 4316 16336 18289


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