Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2014-09-18

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-09-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78458 18032 1420 164 0 0 0 0
OW 0 53 98 262 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 83 274 48 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 31 131 225 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 3 154 486 423 63 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 23 284 3546 4813
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-09-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83105 13535 1055 359 5 0 0 0
OW 0 60 92 240 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 89 256 43 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 67 146 197 17 1 0
CDI 0 0 4 225 518 293 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 199 1859 4155 2523
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81783 15237 1053 132 0 0 0 0
OW 0 21 127 174 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 80 287 38 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 10 247 183 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 4 144 665 321 64 0
VCDI 0 0 0 39 339 1194 3285 3660
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76802 19485 1556 137 0 0 0 0
OW 0 36 123 154 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 119 258 56 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 29 228 180 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 4 202 633 270 23 0
VCDI 0 0 0 68 397 1863 3872 2580
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76802 19486 1569 170 1 0 0 0
OW 0 34 120 155 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 107 238 63 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 31 218 171 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 4 214 646 252 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 52 386 1884 3875 2580

Date: 2014-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76362 19358 1711 395 0 0 0 0
OW 0 26 96 179 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 79 231 110 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 17 184 186 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 11 169 666 322 23 0
VCDI 0 0 0 105 320 1244 4573 2705
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76362 19368 1721 433 0 0 0 0
OW 0 16 96 162 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 69 218 95 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 16 188 169 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 12 155 625 316 17 0
VCDI 0 0 0 107 377 1252 4579 2705

Date: 2014-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76306 19954 1524 206 0 0 0 0
OW 0 27 155 235 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 31 360 90 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 10 191 382 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 131 639 886 99 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 90 1177 4339 2248
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76306 19901 1414 257 0 0 0 0
OW 0 53 103 103 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 148 152 38 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 38 201 100 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 17 276 654 238 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 142 409 1827 4423 2248

Date: 2014-09-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78315 18367 1394 185 0 0 0 0
OW 0 35 126 277 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 20 42 251 94 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 20 136 267 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 14 204 683 380 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 44 345 1460 3256 3146
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78315 18298 1214 181 0 0 0 0
OW 0 64 125 102 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 35 164 150 38 0 0 0
ODI 0 17 40 213 95 5 0 0
CDI 0 11 37 228 480 83 10 0
VCDI 0 1 16 223 782 1760 3265 3146

Date: 2014-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78450 18479 1149 174 3 0 0 0
OW 0 27 207 201 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 87 244 97 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 11 144 194 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 27 185 585 261 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 60 364 1469 3618 3032
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78450 18406 998 175 9 0 0 0
OW 0 70 147 87 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 199 140 42 5 0 0
ODI 0 5 92 179 87 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 41 266 303 54 0 0
VCDI 0 0 4 161 796 1668 3618 3032


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