Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2014-09-18

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-09-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4200 15645 2560 292 0 0 0 0
OW 0 189 247 563 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 139 343 873 193 3 0 0
ODI 0 4 78 631 611 24 0 0
CDI 0 3 12 298 973 1049 136 0
VCDI 0 0 21 132 259 1099 5520 9754
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-09-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3153 16618 2421 147 0 0 0 0
OW 0 181 434 614 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 135 376 784 157 1 0 0
ODI 0 7 150 538 530 44 0 0
CDI 0 5 50 218 665 1125 208 0
VCDI 0 0 34 239 234 689 5104 11002
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3164 16313 2711 128 0 0 0 0
OW 0 508 816 287 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 287 1265 10 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 11 421 597 25 0 0
CDI 0 0 9 61 702 649 219 0
VCDI 0 0 14 129 211 664 5292 11348
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2691 16889 2155 155 0 0 0 0
OW 0 626 796 190 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 34 329 997 147 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 351 676 58 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 81 532 756 224 0
VCDI 0 0 0 88 124 748 4898 12314
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2682 16796 2278 183 2 0 0 0
OW 9 596 524 263 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 157 473 874 121 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 9 373 688 75 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 81 538 731 264 0
VCDI 0 0 0 88 132 756 4858 12314

Date: 2014-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3145 16575 1825 122 0 0 0 0
OW 0 635 448 187 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 53 365 835 320 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 333 674 41 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 95 649 760 161 1
VCDI 0 0 0 41 268 1091 5497 11739
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3099 16480 1888 134 0 0 0 0
OW 46 567 319 188 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 216 408 758 209 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 23 390 737 29 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 98 685 682 151 0
VCDI 0 0 0 45 280 1181 5509 11740

Date: 2014-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2627 16902 2403 57 0 0 0 0
OW 0 366 494 180 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 189 754 105 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 210 891 83 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 536 881 74 0
VCDI 0 0 0 86 163 1054 6510 11227
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2581 16237 2258 109 13 0 0 0
OW 46 715 308 79 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 338 466 437 126 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 54 451 602 137 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 145 583 531 268 0
VCDI 0 0 0 106 371 1349 6315 11227

Date: 2014-09-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5871 13706 2068 165 0 0 0 0
OW 0 229 400 362 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 151 606 207 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 181 565 206 62 0
CDI 0 0 0 62 520 994 280 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 135 879 5394 12769
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5871 12932 1854 186 0 0 0 0
OW 0 794 325 230 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 233 322 482 169 53 0 0
ODI 0 0 111 209 375 287 46 0
CDI 0 0 7 222 420 385 386 0
VCDI 0 0 0 75 461 1356 5304 12769

Date: 2014-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4088 14989 2007 253 0 0 0 0
OW 0 211 389 402 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 219 600 142 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 212 473 194 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 49 508 1187 358 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 117 693 4930 13826
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4088 14398 1926 226 0 0 0 0
OW 0 721 303 309 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 88 384 615 278 113 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 215 184 367 86 0
CDI 0 0 0 132 271 325 393 0
VCDI 0 0 0 31 482 1269 4809 13826


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