Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-09-18

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-09-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85955 48018 4958 567 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1231 1094 1416 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 219 741 2609 546 4 0 0
ODI 0 4 109 1172 2119 226 0 0
CDI 0 3 16 484 2384 2340 433 0
VCDI 0 0 21 132 292 2019 12267 15643
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-09-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88907 44834 4368 602 5 0 0 0
OW 0 1393 1175 1438 37 0 0 0
VODI 0 284 948 2381 559 91 0 0
ODI 0 7 218 1148 1514 505 101 0
CDI 0 5 54 485 1916 2083 813 0
VCDI 0 0 34 247 446 3139 12399 14912
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87553 46834 4915 337 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1049 1818 967 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 45 575 3129 188 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 25 1022 1693 95 0 0
CDI 0 0 14 211 1883 2190 449 0
VCDI 0 0 14 168 550 2101 12314 16890
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81827 51558 4732 347 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1871 1650 567 35 0 0 0
VODI 0 147 948 2705 308 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 50 1147 1568 128 6 0
CDI 0 0 5 342 1867 1842 635 0
VCDI 0 0 0 156 623 3551 12243 16171
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81818 51859 4947 418 8 0 0 0
OW 9 1431 1310 848 31 1 0 0
VODI 0 286 1065 2336 393 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 57 1134 1422 177 8 0
CDI 0 0 6 388 1878 1765 728 0
VCDI 0 0 0 140 669 3576 12148 16171

Date: 2014-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82285 50288 4370 548 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2227 1195 535 50 0 0 0
VODI 0 302 1072 2547 518 29 0 0
ODI 0 0 55 1063 1556 122 12 0
CDI 0 0 12 336 1962 1938 278 1
VCDI 0 0 0 146 605 3191 14001 15804
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82239 50409 4566 612 1 0 0 0
OW 46 1802 897 601 56 3 0 0
VODI 0 606 1135 2275 456 29 0 0
ODI 0 0 92 1162 1488 112 17 0
CDI 0 0 14 373 1949 1651 281 0
VCDI 0 0 0 152 741 3485 13993 15805

Date: 2014-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81600 52613 5373 349 2 0 0 0
OW 0 481 1396 774 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 287 2651 356 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 10 573 2394 136 2 0
CDI 0 0 1 173 1551 2922 187 0
VCDI 0 0 0 94 253 2682 14965 15174
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81554 50175 4607 413 16 0 0 0
OW 46 1748 888 453 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 1192 1355 1638 436 36 0 0
ODI 0 2 198 1318 1321 198 4 0
CDI 0 0 19 544 1892 1210 360 0
VCDI 0 0 0 248 890 4298 14790 15174

Date: 2014-09-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86275 47273 4923 436 1 0 0 0
OW 0 687 1444 1079 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 45 350 1985 797 4 0 0
ODI 0 4 20 507 1657 449 62 0
CDI 0 0 15 282 1596 2193 418 0
VCDI 0 0 0 72 496 3034 13129 17799
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86275 45026 4194 406 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1797 865 524 40 0 0 0
VODI 0 1033 1197 1430 637 93 0 0
ODI 0 141 432 1056 1007 552 58 0
CDI 0 11 48 645 1503 910 521 0
VCDI 0 1 16 300 1376 4125 13030 17799

Date: 2014-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84556 48106 4394 482 3 0 0 0
OW 0 804 1443 1116 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 62 505 2024 751 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 11 552 1399 583 0 0
CDI 0 0 28 269 1418 2294 447 0
VCDI 0 0 0 77 579 3021 13201 18893
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84547 46240 4005 443 9 0 0 0
OW 9 1780 799 633 78 2 0 0
VODI 0 787 1122 1596 696 177 0 0
ODI 0 157 347 1016 978 759 86 0
CDI 0 8 104 622 928 1046 489 0
VCDI 0 0 4 210 1485 3920 13073 18893


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