Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2014-09-11

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-09-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82479 14609 1052 133 0 0 0 0
OW 0 10 155 228 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 48 333 58 2 0 0
ODI 0 1 8 175 223 18 1 0
CDI 0 0 23 90 232 483 378 20
VCDI 0 0 0 11 44 733 4966 2579
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-09-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80447 16644 931 115 0 0 0 0
OW 0 35 204 200 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 76 312 54 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 18 171 206 24 0 0
CDI 0 0 30 123 314 606 91 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 26 669 5213 2566
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-09-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79977 16781 1235 208 0 0 0 0
OW 0 4 98 270 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 28 325 92 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 7 108 276 23 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 71 334 590 105 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 470 5158 2932
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-09-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80452 16147 1340 181 0 0 0 0
OW 0 21 79 309 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 67 275 74 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 15 117 252 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 6 122 437 436 102 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 267 4897 3471
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80452 16155 1356 292 0 0 0 0
OW 0 13 75 241 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 57 251 82 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 18 106 258 25 1 0
CDI 0 0 1 114 416 468 127 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 235 4871 3471

Date: 2014-09-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78521 18218 1045 310 3 0 0 0
OW 0 64 98 254 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 106 227 67 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 64 145 200 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 16 241 486 216 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 227 1182 3327 4036
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78521 18232 1064 368 3 0 0 0
OW 0 47 99 223 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 95 221 65 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 57 145 192 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 14 222 540 218 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 181 1178 3331 4036

Date: 2014-09-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78166 18750 996 219 0 0 0 0
OW 0 8 76 221 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 22 341 87 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 122 321 35 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 65 490 696 40 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 38 423 4327 3635
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78166 18694 939 266 0 0 0 0
OW 0 45 63 238 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 65 177 131 2 0 0
ODI 0 4 23 150 160 35 0 0
CDI 0 0 4 125 533 485 111 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 88 633 4256 3635

Date: 2014-09-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78904 18025 1056 134 1 0 0 0
OW 0 24 155 159 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 102 295 26 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 16 292 121 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 191 701 294 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 41 364 1868 3689 2614
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78904 17942 971 177 0 0 0 0
OW 0 62 136 137 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 30 157 261 24 0 0 0
ODI 0 19 53 228 122 7 0 0
CDI 0 1 13 276 664 178 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 33 404 1985 3681 2614

Date: 2014-09-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76335 19883 1445 226 0 0 0 0
OW 0 28 101 174 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 50 257 115 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 26 169 230 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 4 173 618 316 36 0
VCDI 0 0 0 93 387 1632 3971 2801
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76335 19816 1360 250 9 0 0 0
OW 0 61 118 98 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 96 235 70 0 0 0
ODI 0 16 45 186 177 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 7 211 668 274 50 0
VCDI 0 0 0 112 411 1673 3957 2801


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