Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-09-11

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-09-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89344 45197 3908 485 0 0 0 0
OW 0 635 1263 1327 45 0 0 0
VODI 0 81 748 2507 312 5 3 1
ODI 0 1 165 1356 2177 42 36 12
CDI 0 0 71 832 3102 2791 961 133
VCDI 0 0 0 30 223 2777 13175 13303
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-09-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87952 46185 3866 493 0 0 0 0
OW 0 938 1413 1179 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 235 754 2310 242 12 0 0
ODI 0 16 288 1381 1867 71 1 0
CDI 0 0 206 984 3187 2676 474 86
VCDI 0 0 0 36 352 3097 13971 12761
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-09-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87922 45819 5620 827 0 0 0 0
OW 0 858 1086 1368 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 56 476 3005 456 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 64 877 2888 96 0 0
CDI 0 0 19 325 2089 3381 210 1
VCDI 0 0 0 33 67 2243 14379 12869
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-09-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87565 46477 4941 719 0 0 0 0
OW 0 921 1072 1574 37 0 0 0
VODI 0 77 662 2853 502 39 0 0
ODI 0 4 29 1146 2338 200 0 0
CDI 0 6 24 298 2273 2692 476 0
VCDI 0 0 17 93 230 1894 13516 14373
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87565 46592 4971 984 5 0 0 0
OW 0 710 972 1390 62 0 0 0
VODI 0 172 728 2799 518 41 0 0
ODI 0 4 37 1120 2330 213 1 0
CDI 0 6 15 296 2210 2702 486 0
VCDI 0 1 22 94 255 1869 13505 14373

Date: 2014-09-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86321 47831 4163 741 3 0 0 0
OW 0 1307 1194 1445 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 257 922 2475 569 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 198 1146 1702 515 0 0
CDI 0 0 55 539 1921 2429 472 0
VCDI 0 0 25 218 483 2359 12168 15565
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86321 47907 4289 995 6 0 0 0
OW 0 1044 1020 1229 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 443 978 2353 551 8 0 0
ODI 0 1 191 1271 1674 615 0 0
CDI 0 0 53 488 1951 2308 529 0
VCDI 0 0 26 228 482 2377 12111 15565

Date: 2014-09-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83763 50845 4518 378 0 0 0 0
OW 0 920 1940 1092 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 380 3390 284 1 0 0
ODI 0 1 11 655 2166 152 1 0
CDI 0 0 10 143 1402 3046 183 0
VCDI 0 0 13 165 204 1580 13602 16182
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83763 49995 4453 569 2 0 0 0
OW 0 1085 1163 1064 55 0 0 0
VODI 0 657 964 2070 550 49 0 0
ODI 0 32 206 1323 1406 431 196 0
CDI 0 6 40 466 1613 2354 979 0
VCDI 0 1 46 331 441 1945 12611 16182

Date: 2014-09-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84990 49189 4405 426 1 0 0 0
OW 0 1379 1850 872 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 76 701 3032 192 9 0 0
ODI 0 3 39 1224 1508 63 0 0
CDI 0 0 13 312 2151 1752 558 0
VCDI 0 0 19 157 714 3286 12002 16098
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84990 48486 4233 457 3 0 0 0
OW 0 1191 1042 700 27 1 0 0
VODI 0 889 1308 2211 167 14 0 0
ODI 0 61 357 1592 1451 119 8 0
CDI 0 10 35 771 2063 1823 701 0
VCDI 0 10 52 292 882 3153 11851 16098

Date: 2014-09-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81346 51984 4368 382 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2040 1257 608 46 0 0 0
VODI 0 223 1017 2614 394 30 0 0
ODI 0 0 44 1063 1673 116 14 0
CDI 0 0 5 310 1841 1962 497 0
VCDI 0 0 0 163 558 3568 12846 16079
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81346 51496 4305 496 26 0 0 0
OW 0 1403 912 634 43 12 0 0
VODI 0 1243 1077 1817 329 20 7 0
ODI 0 105 302 1223 1484 164 12 0
CDI 0 0 75 618 1732 1976 689 0
VCDI 0 0 20 352 898 3504 12649 16079


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