Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2014-09-04

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-08-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83859 13595 867 278 0 0 0 0
OW 0 22 120 227 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 36 289 62 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 146 172 19 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 73 338 364 164 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 160 1501 4960 1815
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83378 13866 933 252 5 0 0 0
OW 0 32 95 279 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 31 291 91 5 1 0
ODI 0 0 9 100 221 44 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 64 230 577 195 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 35 924 5957 1463
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-09-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82752 14610 850 161 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 119 247 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 24 377 53 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 113 280 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 295 482 55 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 139 1864 5056 1578
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-09-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80433 16726 1053 110 2 0 0 0
OW 0 3 212 164 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 56 341 41 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 9 183 195 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 16 75 250 579 139 0
VCDI 0 0 3 18 54 1109 5825 1472
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80433 16721 1134 128 2 0 0 0
OW 0 8 130 179 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 56 298 62 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 10 183 169 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 16 83 249 581 159 0
VCDI 0 0 3 20 55 1102 5805 1472

Date: 2014-09-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80764 16482 873 81 0 0 0 0
OW 0 20 219 196 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 75 313 56 3 0 0
ODI 0 1 16 179 209 17 0 0
CDI 0 1 31 101 299 550 288 8
VCDI 0 0 0 7 40 806 4652 2806
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80764 16466 947 127 0 0 0 0
OW 0 35 135 184 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 76 272 73 7 0 0
ODI 0 2 28 172 195 23 1 0
CDI 0 0 28 117 292 532 293 8
VCDI 0 0 0 5 39 814 4646 2806

Date: 2014-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80318 16740 1014 134 0 0 0 0
OW 0 7 119 254 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 41 361 66 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 11 138 271 40 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 64 298 640 51 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 675 4981 2868
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80318 16681 948 177 0 0 0 0
OW 0 46 121 207 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 20 54 226 99 23 0 0
ODI 0 0 46 157 165 49 10 0
CDI 0 0 16 166 323 542 70 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 34 742 4952 2868

Date: 2014-09-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80939 15993 1067 192 0 0 0 0
OW 0 11 110 277 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 41 299 82 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 137 239 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 7 103 464 412 76 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 374 4884 3361
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80939 15913 972 213 0 0 0 0
OW 0 67 107 204 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 80 215 105 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 52 161 147 36 12 0
CDI 0 0 18 195 494 379 104 0
VCDI 0 0 2 20 35 375 4844 3361

Date: 2014-09-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78458 18032 1420 164 0 0 0 0
OW 0 53 98 262 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 83 274 48 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 31 131 225 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 3 154 486 423 63 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 23 284 3546 4813
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78458 17948 1410 255 7 0 0 0
OW 0 85 67 201 25 4 0 0
VODI 0 49 64 194 92 24 0 0
ODI 0 12 66 124 187 56 7 0
CDI 0 0 28 211 426 350 142 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 46 289 3460 4813


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