Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-09-04

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-08-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94243 40539 3775 1019 1 0 0 0
OW 0 242 733 1606 125 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 281 2406 800 15 3 0
ODI 0 0 66 899 1743 257 30 0
CDI 0 0 10 1043 2915 2380 712 1
VCDI 0 0 0 135 997 4965 15416 9668
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92338 41981 3950 932 12 0 0 0
OW 0 385 822 1544 174 0 0 0
VODI 0 28 377 2321 770 44 1 0
ODI 0 0 121 947 1659 199 53 2
CDI 0 0 68 1036 2836 2760 1345 62
VCDI 0 0 0 52 589 3440 17557 8643
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-09-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92442 41938 4452 831 9 0 0 0
OW 0 138 992 1626 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 271 2878 494 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 41 1148 2949 77 12 1
CDI 0 0 2 433 2993 3260 258 16
VCDI 0 0 0 29 254 3736 12758 12973
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-09-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86868 47396 4416 543 22 0 0 0
OW 0 381 1241 1386 68 0 0 0
VODI 0 33 661 2346 571 14 2 0
ODI 0 0 115 1221 2394 167 27 0
CDI 0 0 48 695 2915 3398 610 50
VCDI 0 0 3 46 208 3019 15011 11173
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86868 47541 4639 681 26 0 0 0
OW 0 251 1030 1357 59 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 630 2290 689 32 2 0
ODI 0 0 130 1146 2332 150 27 1
CDI 0 0 52 712 2848 3276 626 47
VCDI 0 0 3 51 224 3140 14995 11175

Date: 2014-09-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87331 46951 3864 441 9 0 0 0
OW 0 865 1412 1153 52 0 0 0
VODI 0 150 824 2292 263 3 1 0
ODI 0 4 279 1466 1932 39 22 0
CDI 0 1 117 939 3576 2290 841 96
VCDI 0 0 0 31 301 3844 13559 12100
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87331 47360 4235 624 15 0 0 0
OW 0 493 1076 1100 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 111 765 2227 345 7 1 0
ODI 0 7 298 1350 1931 55 26 0
CDI 0 0 122 986 3412 2291 934 92
VCDI 0 0 0 35 397 3823 13462 12104

Date: 2014-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88748 45501 5039 642 0 0 0 0
OW 0 743 1381 1298 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 390 3323 419 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 46 936 3040 107 0 0
CDI 0 0 5 308 2052 3634 125 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 52 2062 13951 13219
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88748 45516 4585 698 0 0 0 0
OW 0 473 1133 1040 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 229 608 2158 355 30 0 0
ODI 0 39 338 1307 1606 120 10 0
CDI 0 0 197 1242 2954 2275 421 0
VCDI 0 0 0 72 620 3379 13645 13219

Date: 2014-09-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89541 44574 5108 757 0 0 0 0
OW 0 833 1154 1490 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 42 460 3098 414 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 27 930 2731 98 0 0
CDI 0 0 33 303 2150 3029 338 0
VCDI 0 0 0 57 135 1865 14496 13371
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89541 44721 4370 613 0 0 0 0
OW 0 575 1235 925 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 136 730 2120 319 19 0 0
ODI 0 17 324 1479 1402 124 12 0
CDI 0 0 97 1348 2915 1631 374 0
VCDI 0 0 26 150 781 3219 14448 13371

Date: 2014-09-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85955 48018 4958 567 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1231 1094 1416 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 219 741 2609 546 4 0 0
ODI 0 4 109 1172 2119 226 0 0
CDI 0 3 16 484 2384 2340 433 0
VCDI 0 0 21 132 292 2019 12267 15643
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85955 47983 4423 605 13 0 0 0
OW 0 907 1150 860 94 4 0 0
VODI 0 399 674 1759 414 24 0 0
ODI 0 150 355 1222 1158 317 7 0
CDI 0 29 297 1545 2594 1169 420 0
VCDI 0 7 40 389 1094 3075 12273 15643


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