Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2014-08-28

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-08-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83829 12995 997 486 6 0 0 0
OW 0 32 87 349 8 1 0 0
VODI 0 9 48 235 90 9 4 0
ODI 0 0 34 106 216 27 19 0
CDI 0 0 10 71 248 357 152 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 27 1003 5384 2249
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82519 14221 1261 324 5 0 0 0
OW 0 54 122 217 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 40 39 211 87 10 4 0
ODI 0 15 33 111 169 30 20 0
CDI 0 0 17 96 251 279 272 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 56 881 4599 3138
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84017 13151 940 387 3 0 0 0
OW 0 18 46 267 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 39 242 116 2 1 0
ODI 0 0 12 70 228 52 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 62 164 393 237 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 40 724 5186 2693
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81604 15575 1168 273 0 0 0 0
OW 0 25 99 237 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 39 282 65 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 8 120 192 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 6 80 307 421 95 9
VCDI 0 0 0 0 153 1960 3914 2442
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81604 15579 1194 326 0 0 0 0
OW 0 20 80 207 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 31 245 82 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 8 130 179 18 0 0
CDI 0 0 7 84 304 425 88 18
VCDI 0 0 0 0 148 1951 3921 2433

Date: 2014-08-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81589 15813 847 247 12 0 0 0
OW 0 23 101 267 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 36 283 86 1 3 0
ODI 0 0 3 103 218 32 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 59 198 556 251 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 29 1109 6083 1123
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81589 15817 901 313 11 0 0 0
OW 0 16 49 230 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 29 217 120 2 3 0
ODI 0 0 8 123 193 43 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 76 182 537 279 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 30 1116 6052 1123

Date: 2014-09-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84252 12988 816 284 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 115 248 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 15 426 61 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 86 315 30 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 223 564 22 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 95 1648 5341 1545
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84252 12965 846 428 1 0 0 0
OW 0 14 56 221 35 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 29 216 126 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 15 120 183 63 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 71 257 560 130 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 99 1611 5231 1545

Date: 2014-09-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84022 13469 735 155 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2 136 220 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 41 346 63 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 148 209 30 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 68 252 484 129 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 103 1760 5370 1334
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84022 13430 719 218 3 0 0 0
OW 0 35 99 156 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 74 213 93 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 20 177 148 41 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 178 252 507 268 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 103 1719 5230 1334

Date: 2014-09-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82479 14609 1052 133 0 0 0 0
OW 0 10 155 228 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 48 333 58 2 0 0
ODI 0 1 8 175 223 18 1 0
CDI 0 0 23 90 232 483 378 20
VCDI 0 0 0 11 44 733 4966 2579
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82479 14589 1089 270 2 0 0 0
OW 0 30 94 157 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 67 220 110 15 0 0
ODI 0 1 19 148 150 78 4 0
CDI 0 0 17 165 217 409 552 39
VCDI 0 0 0 10 54 734 4789 2560


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