Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2014-08-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-08-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83905 12894 1061 666 12 1 0 0
OW 0 26 58 578 38 9 0 0
VODI 0 9 38 178 215 48 16 0
ODI 0 0 21 72 137 86 85 0
CDI 0 0 0 39 151 287 876 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 161 4122 3306
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85106 11603 1079 780 13 0 0 0
OW 0 33 54 466 56 6 0 0
VODI 0 18 36 140 197 55 26 0
ODI 0 0 29 63 101 133 86 0
CDI 0 0 7 50 85 180 810 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 333 4317 3232
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86650 10412 788 515 6 0 0 0
OW 0 0 106 359 11 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 25 401 78 3 2 0
ODI 0 0 9 90 241 46 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 147 322 255 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 275 5159 3157
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85112 11810 980 442 13 0 0 0
OW 0 33 88 374 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 52 210 114 5 4 0
ODI 0 0 14 86 197 85 15 0
CDI 0 0 8 43 145 302 344 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 23 545 5638 2393
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85112 11819 993 506 14 0 0 0
OW 0 24 77 346 14 1 0 0
VODI 0 6 45 187 118 5 4 0
ODI 0 0 21 76 212 79 17 0
CDI 0 0 6 43 127 315 370 63
VCDI 0 0 0 2 21 537 5610 2330

Date: 2014-08-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82583 14105 1141 475 8 0 0 0
OW 0 46 86 303 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 34 36 193 99 7 5 0
ODI 0 2 42 83 213 34 23 0
CDI 0 0 7 85 178 343 267 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 28 518 5471 2662
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82583 14107 1149 497 11 0 0 0
OW 0 42 83 312 12 1 0 0
VODI 0 37 28 170 104 8 8 0
ODI 0 1 49 84 206 39 22 0
CDI 0 0 3 80 182 357 320 97
VCDI 0 0 0 4 26 497 5416 2565

Date: 2014-08-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81355 15557 1186 301 6 0 0 0
OW 0 9 128 242 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 40 333 65 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 87 267 16 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 61 212 355 96 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 46 692 5072 2958
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81355 15465 1169 412 9 0 0 0
OW 0 46 100 218 15 1 0 0
VODI 0 38 32 169 93 11 3 0
ODI 0 17 50 101 167 36 12 0
CDI 0 0 9 124 269 326 283 107
VCDI 0 0 0 0 45 693 4874 2851

Date: 2014-08-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82328 14979 897 329 0 0 0 0
OW 0 16 60 284 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 36 248 97 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 92 232 23 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 58 252 417 200 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 628 5100 2791
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82328 14889 867 476 9 0 0 0
OW 0 48 53 180 56 3 0 0
VODI 0 44 30 140 134 12 0 0
ODI 0 15 48 98 153 59 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 113 209 402 501 130
VCDI 0 0 0 4 47 592 4796 2661

Date: 2014-08-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83859 13595 867 278 0 0 0 0
OW 0 22 120 227 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 36 289 62 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 146 172 19 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 73 338 364 164 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 160 1501 4960 1815
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83859 13488 890 347 7 0 0 0
OW 0 57 51 173 38 0 0 0
VODI 0 52 36 220 76 16 0 0
ODI 0 20 41 132 139 56 4 0
CDI 0 0 7 139 326 359 448 24
VCDI 0 0 0 2 167 1458 4677 1791


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