Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2014-08-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-08-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7834 9682 1501 434 27 1 0 0
OW 0 192 453 309 67 18 2 0
VODI 0 25 349 501 243 60 16 0
ODI 0 0 66 277 602 69 47 0
CDI 0 0 7 227 758 1216 467 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 233 1204 7929 11029
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5824 11981 1420 536 31 0 4 0
OW 0 468 330 241 80 9 18 0
VODI 0 153 300 360 185 40 50 0
ODI 0 28 133 292 442 51 90 0
CDI 0 0 84 315 1168 585 641 33
VCDI 0 0 1 40 408 775 4737 14013
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6615 12818 1482 302 6 0 0 0
OW 0 40 305 299 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 75 788 199 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 46 350 609 62 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 319 1240 721 241 1
VCDI 0 0 0 43 448 2139 5250 11417
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9107 10110 1834 429 3 0 0 0
OW 0 26 229 401 12 1 0 0
VODI 0 6 81 789 122 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 42 452 363 31 0 0
CDI 0 0 11 573 1253 897 58 0
VCDI 0 0 0 89 660 2005 4754 11513
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9107 10104 1831 475 4 0 0 0
OW 0 36 227 341 14 1 0 0
VODI 0 2 81 756 127 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 48 477 371 37 0 0
CDI 0 0 10 593 1227 949 127 0
VCDI 0 0 0 91 670 1945 4685 11513

Date: 2014-08-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7280 12437 1679 284 0 0 0 0
OW 0 69 238 420 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 95 728 103 6 0 0
ODI 0 1 56 407 336 35 4 0
CDI 0 0 17 602 1245 607 506 0
VCDI 0 0 0 257 710 1747 6848 9114
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7280 12443 1691 308 2 0 0 0
OW 0 64 216 351 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 108 718 105 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 50 448 356 38 1 0
CDI 0 0 20 623 1275 677 498 0
VCDI 0 0 0 250 660 1678 6859 9114

Date: 2014-08-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8375 11552 1608 235 0 0 0 0
OW 0 46 323 436 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 64 1135 73 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 10 315 670 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 605 1495 1018 75 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 201 893 6360 10357
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8375 11489 1592 244 0 0 0 0
OW 0 78 216 397 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 27 117 751 64 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 58 408 399 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 23 682 1419 963 328 9
VCDI 0 0 0 256 557 949 6107 10348

Date: 2014-08-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7999 11858 1931 236 0 0 0 0
OW 0 25 275 590 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 78 858 84 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 27 330 550 23 0 0
CDI 0 0 6 719 1494 678 396 0
VCDI 0 0 0 46 292 1205 4894 11270
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7999 11686 1761 254 0 0 0 0
OW 0 111 241 381 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 58 138 631 98 1 0 0
ODI 0 23 86 375 345 41 3 0
CDI 0 6 91 730 1453 601 575 29
VCDI 0 0 0 408 514 1263 4712 11241

Date: 2014-08-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7377 12709 1696 265 0 0 0 0
OW 0 76 269 622 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 110 735 99 3 3 0
ODI 0 0 31 464 272 68 23 0
CDI 0 0 10 853 1454 607 376 1
VCDI 0 0 0 135 460 1887 7710 7518
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7377 12537 1584 293 11 0 0 0
OW 0 172 237 368 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 74 156 584 114 3 9 0
ODI 0 15 89 389 262 99 32 0
CDI 0 0 50 887 1272 746 458 0
VCDI 0 0 0 553 621 1717 7613 7519


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