Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-08-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-08-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94028 35649 3737 1336 55 2 0 0
OW 0 307 1059 1612 212 31 2 0
VODI 0 38 489 1939 1202 174 40 0
ODI 0 0 107 559 2781 994 294 0
CDI 0 0 8 306 1314 3289 4181 0
VCDI 0 0 0 22 256 1630 14467 14928
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92818 37376 3584 1521 60 10 4 0
OW 0 730 1049 1320 233 18 24 0
VODI 0 190 537 1806 1191 217 85 0
ODI 0 32 186 616 2150 909 466 0
CDI 0 0 105 422 1685 2059 4279 246
VCDI 0 0 1 40 426 1323 11482 17848
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95375 37174 3648 1092 28 0 0 0
OW 0 72 895 1486 47 5 0 0
VODI 0 13 141 2536 721 29 2 0
ODI 0 0 63 609 3105 205 17 0
CDI 0 0 0 379 2755 2587 667 1
VCDI 0 0 0 43 482 4126 13386 15359
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95325 37361 4001 1048 29 7 0 0
OW 0 162 948 1459 60 12 1 0
VODI 0 12 207 2349 759 42 16 0
ODI 0 0 63 836 2028 485 97 0
CDI 0 0 19 659 2681 2649 690 0
VCDI 0 0 0 94 804 3393 14136 14616
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95325 37370 4056 1205 33 9 0 0
OW 0 157 885 1319 63 13 1 0
VODI 0 8 205 2228 805 50 15 0
ODI 0 0 76 931 1967 503 103 0
CDI 0 0 16 669 2693 2700 740 63
VCDI 0 0 0 93 800 3313 14081 14553

Date: 2014-08-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92401 41006 3928 899 17 0 0 0
OW 0 330 981 1387 58 5 0 0
VODI 0 81 305 2153 835 26 5 0
ODI 0 3 158 764 1840 449 28 0
CDI 0 0 32 810 2710 2239 1047 0
VCDI 0 0 0 268 844 4054 15196 12189
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92401 40992 4078 975 24 0 0 0
OW 0 318 829 1305 73 7 0 0
VODI 0 104 289 2087 899 21 8 0
ODI 0 6 169 783 1791 493 30 0
CDI 0 0 39 877 2718 2337 1167 97
VCDI 0 0 0 254 799 3915 15071 12092

Date: 2014-08-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92755 41782 4052 668 19 0 0 0
OW 0 121 934 1277 12 8 0 0
VODI 0 3 194 3266 453 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 32 629 2812 88 6 0
CDI 0 0 4 716 2519 3238 255 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 280 2271 14959 13658
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92755 41280 3898 927 54 9 0 0
OW 0 345 745 1301 82 16 0 0
VODI 0 200 235 2169 838 26 4 0
ODI 0 66 198 834 1612 269 18 0
CDI 0 15 140 1070 2801 2702 867 116
VCDI 0 0 0 271 708 2604 14331 13542

Date: 2014-08-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92949 41810 4238 787 28 0 0 0
OW 0 103 715 1581 42 1 0 0
VODI 0 3 207 2785 610 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 50 684 2306 120 0 0
CDI 0 0 6 860 2799 2440 758 0
VCDI 0 0 0 46 438 3015 12875 14785
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92949 41028 3871 1064 88 1 0 0
OW 0 506 641 1325 152 9 0 0
VODI 0 228 318 2028 865 22 0 0
ODI 0 106 190 796 1528 226 6 0
CDI 0 48 196 1115 2835 2304 1290 159
VCDI 0 0 0 415 755 3021 12337 14626

Date: 2014-08-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94243 40539 3775 1019 1 0 0 0
OW 0 242 733 1606 125 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 281 2406 800 15 3 0
ODI 0 0 66 899 1743 257 30 0
CDI 0 0 10 1043 2915 2380 712 1
VCDI 0 0 0 135 997 4965 15416 9668
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94243 39722 3610 1364 109 0 0 0
OW 0 573 584 1269 278 0 0 0
VODI 0 301 322 1777 960 47 9 0
ODI 0 130 178 831 1198 409 45 0
CDI 0 78 171 1312 2774 2390 1141 24
VCDI 0 0 0 555 1262 4771 14966 9645


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