Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2014-08-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-08-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84446 12305 1079 637 5 0 0 0
OW 0 15 104 471 28 3 0 0
VODI 0 4 30 425 174 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 18 55 261 32 6 0
CDI 0 0 2 29 216 318 242 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 383 2521 4162 1116
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82770 13856 1183 641 10 0 0 0
OW 0 13 100 496 18 3 0 0
VODI 0 6 28 437 141 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 25 99 267 13 3 0
CDI 0 0 2 51 309 332 299 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 183 1794 4300 1716
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79938 15548 2427 623 11 0 0 0
OW 0 5 74 511 26 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 19 458 177 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 61 255 89 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 101 441 661 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1388 5582 688
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83732 13102 997 692 18 0 0 0
OW 0 15 51 603 34 5 0 0
VODI 0 6 32 217 255 31 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 69 155 144 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 111 320 851 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 1127 4831 1629
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83732 13103 1001 695 29 2 0 0
OW 0 14 52 567 42 6 0 0
VODI 0 6 31 261 252 33 0 0
ODI 0 0 9 61 147 149 25 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 105 327 886 8
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 1110 4791 1621

Date: 2014-08-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85814 11256 911 576 8 3 0 0
OW 0 23 68 528 38 4 1 0
VODI 0 12 40 162 234 37 8 0
ODI 0 0 27 72 140 105 46 0
CDI 0 0 1 35 134 296 755 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 188 4266 3312
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85814 11262 888 597 18 6 0 0
OW 0 20 103 478 39 2 4 0
VODI 0 9 33 208 238 36 5 0
ODI 0 0 22 63 135 102 60 0
CDI 0 0 1 27 124 293 720 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 194 4287 3312

Date: 2014-08-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85821 11043 817 570 7 1 0 0
OW 0 10 92 394 10 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 23 538 80 4 3 0
ODI 0 0 10 76 285 25 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 111 480 158 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 393 4834 3294
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85821 11016 807 1001 23 6 0 0
OW 0 27 66 332 72 1 4 0
VODI 0 10 45 152 215 71 24 0
ODI 0 0 17 74 87 114 114 0
CDI 0 0 7 31 93 252 695 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 461 4165 3294

Date: 2014-08-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83785 13152 900 526 10 0 0 0
OW 0 15 115 375 10 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 43 278 85 3 4 0
ODI 0 0 11 86 217 64 14 0
CDI 0 0 3 38 140 299 352 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 11 376 5584 2601
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83785 13096 911 849 19 4 2 0
OW 0 51 70 215 85 2 7 0
VODI 0 20 47 140 180 85 35 0
ODI 0 0 34 48 97 124 110 0
CDI 0 0 10 51 82 165 731 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 10 364 5069 2601

Date: 2014-08-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83829 12995 997 486 6 0 0 0
OW 0 32 87 349 8 1 0 0
VODI 0 9 48 235 90 9 4 0
ODI 0 0 34 106 216 27 19 0
CDI 0 0 10 71 248 357 152 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 27 1003 5384 2249
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83829 12960 1036 814 18 5 0 0
OW 0 46 59 227 131 7 4 0
VODI 0 30 27 121 217 58 26 0
ODI 0 0 47 34 135 177 54 0
CDI 0 0 7 52 69 213 917 62
VCDI 0 0 0 11 25 937 4558 2187


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