Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2014-08-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-08-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8047 8023 1764 839 9 0 0 0
OW 0 77 357 420 91 4 0 0
VODI 0 10 138 1018 442 48 17 0
ODI 0 1 10 657 1643 294 50 0
CDI 0 0 6 67 1880 2354 1560 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 297 479 6974 8275
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7953 8708 1459 717 18 3 0 0
OW 0 142 292 379 147 16 2 0
VODI 0 31 210 1003 477 102 18 0
ODI 0 0 13 492 1026 758 54 1
CDI 0 0 3 98 584 1614 2346 301
VCDI 0 0 0 16 406 359 5032 11086
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7068 10133 1514 528 25 0 0 0
OW 0 7 410 363 64 8 0 0
VODI 0 4 112 1023 247 39 3 0
ODI 0 2 9 297 882 79 16 0
CDI 0 0 1 83 942 1334 412 3
VCDI 0 0 0 7 267 1347 8149 10488
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6336 10873 1554 579 27 7 0 0
OW 0 125 450 352 43 30 0 0
VODI 0 7 290 660 236 57 12 0
ODI 0 0 26 275 671 86 26 0
CDI 0 0 0 196 770 1197 441 138
VCDI 0 0 0 7 172 1420 6963 11840
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6336 10858 1584 600 37 10 0 0
OW 0 136 408 337 47 22 0 0
VODI 0 11 289 635 217 59 15 0
ODI 0 0 38 292 642 85 25 0
CDI 0 0 1 190 802 1355 476 175
VCDI 0 0 0 15 174 1266 6926 11803

Date: 2014-08-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6671 11037 1450 438 24 3 0 0
OW 0 376 370 278 55 26 0 0
VODI 0 95 342 404 232 55 7 0
ODI 0 3 108 307 504 97 20 0
CDI 0 0 33 260 930 1077 336 56
VCDI 0 0 0 31 255 954 5388 13644
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6671 11121 1509 514 34 6 0 0
OW 0 298 308 194 57 20 0 0
VODI 0 92 353 391 203 58 6 0
ODI 0 0 102 335 487 97 20 0
CDI 0 0 31 238 937 1217 417 63
VCDI 0 0 0 46 282 814 5308 13637

Date: 2014-08-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7414 11357 1630 403 2 0 0 0
OW 0 105 494 219 32 0 1 0
VODI 0 2 101 835 187 14 6 0
ODI 0 0 37 333 735 47 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 161 1342 831 159 1
VCDI 0 0 0 9 232 683 4883 13597
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7414 10683 1547 489 23 1 6 0
OW 0 465 199 169 72 12 9 0
VODI 0 252 257 311 166 69 30 0
ODI 0 62 123 409 299 70 83 0
CDI 0 2 136 538 1283 461 691 14
VCDI 0 0 0 44 687 962 4244 13584

Date: 2014-08-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6569 12603 1873 347 7 0 0 0
OW 0 24 224 361 32 2 0 0
VODI 0 2 88 777 164 30 1 0
ODI 0 0 26 378 472 82 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 362 1376 550 325 2
VCDI 0 0 0 58 572 1952 4903 11689
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6569 11901 1485 398 20 7 0 0
OW 0 461 235 178 49 22 0 0
VODI 0 185 261 391 103 80 22 0
ODI 0 64 90 478 218 106 77 0
CDI 0 18 140 771 1395 388 836 56
VCDI 0 0 0 67 838 2013 4309 11635

Date: 2014-08-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9095 10426 1749 296 2 0 0 0
OW 0 58 238 405 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 104 737 105 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 55 444 354 21 7 0
CDI 0 0 12 611 1252 674 337 0
VCDI 0 0 0 131 712 1606 5673 10736
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9095 9618 1380 370 10 0 0 0
OW 0 537 192 180 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 204 287 297 149 41 1 0
ODI 0 94 119 471 209 100 36 0
CDI 0 41 180 1212 1252 635 501 0
VCDI 0 0 0 94 783 1531 5479 10736


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