Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2014-08-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-08-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84752 12038 1117 813 7 0 0 0
OW 0 0 14 568 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 595 142 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 55 429 71 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 192 1347 245 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3764 2877 21
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85127 11730 974 845 7 0 0 0
OW 0 0 15 580 45 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 507 179 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 47 404 84 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 92 1008 733 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 21 1541 4376 767
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83850 12820 1134 757 1 0 0 0
OW 0 1 32 481 28 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 8 579 142 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 54 348 30 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 177 761 158 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 40 2119 4723 853
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82737 13889 1214 653 11 0 0 0
OW 0 9 78 494 26 7 0 0
VODI 0 0 21 487 140 11 6 0
ODI 0 0 2 61 277 35 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 147 396 418 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 566 4138 3250
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82737 13890 1212 615 11 0 0 0
OW 0 8 79 491 29 7 0 0
VODI 0 0 22 538 164 11 8 0
ODI 0 0 2 50 262 41 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 135 368 501 11
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 588 4051 3242

Date: 2014-08-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82365 14120 1280 673 14 0 0 0
OW 0 14 101 488 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 30 443 146 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 19 91 263 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 49 307 239 130 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 381 2648 4271 990
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82365 14120 1254 644 15 0 0 0
OW 0 14 123 471 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 34 492 165 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 19 86 260 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 51 362 348 168 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 305 2533 4233 990

Date: 2014-08-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85722 11176 1093 469 9 0 0 0
OW 0 3 91 444 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 16 690 109 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 63 325 22 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 184 1296 151 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 833 5385 998
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85722 11131 1035 551 18 0 0 0
OW 0 24 114 520 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 23 453 138 6 0 0
ODI 0 6 26 102 221 90 0 0
CDI 0 0 3 47 229 481 836 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 1576 4700 998

Date: 2014-08-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85048 11678 1099 710 11 0 0 0
OW 0 12 49 592 27 1 0 0
VODI 0 3 27 323 207 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 8 74 219 89 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 36 223 413 583 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 176 2013 3579 1867
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85048 11623 1035 763 39 0 0 0
OW 0 26 81 550 44 3 0 0
VODI 0 24 31 284 220 34 0 0
ODI 0 20 29 74 198 121 50 0
CDI 0 0 7 64 235 1135 958 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 127 1242 3168 1867

Date: 2014-08-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83905 12894 1061 666 12 1 0 0
OW 0 26 58 578 38 9 0 0
VODI 0 9 38 178 215 48 16 0
ODI 0 0 21 72 137 86 85 0
CDI 0 0 0 39 151 287 876 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 161 4122 3306
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83905 12813 1005 689 29 6 0 0
OW 0 41 86 562 59 12 4 0
VODI 0 45 35 165 211 56 30 0
ODI 0 30 39 46 142 100 140 0
CDI 0 0 13 71 117 288 3097 138
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 130 1828 3168


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