Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2014-08-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-08-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4409 10670 2033 817 5 0 0 0
OW 0 14 225 563 42 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 46 832 260 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 937 1705 66 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 125 3642 2858 405 0
VCDI 0 0 0 26 1210 2502 8430 4035
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6262 9265 1643 723 6 0 0 0
OW 0 18 301 531 75 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 48 930 217 39 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 1053 1533 69 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 155 3291 1989 1583 528
VCDI 0 0 0 25 796 2261 6549 5969
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5929 9880 1620 768 2 0 0 0
OW 0 0 197 653 35 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 18 956 351 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 14 573 1943 521 44 0
CDI 0 0 9 58 3213 2129 712 3
VCDI 0 0 0 22 164 4093 9388 2558
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7798 8333 1686 730 0 0 0 0
OW 0 18 283 578 39 6 0 0
VODI 0 4 55 1109 285 39 0 0
ODI 0 1 10 677 1929 136 19 0
CDI 0 0 8 68 2224 2683 1135 49
VCDI 0 0 0 22 180 1874 5917 7971
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7798 8339 1736 860 4 2 0 0
OW 0 11 227 492 42 5 0 0
VODI 0 4 59 1092 262 47 0 0
ODI 0 2 9 656 1918 123 13 0
CDI 0 0 11 62 2259 2627 1192 55
VCDI 0 0 0 22 172 1934 5866 7965

Date: 2014-08-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8976 7727 1337 752 7 0 0 0
OW 0 124 320 406 81 8 0 0
VODI 0 21 200 1034 445 69 25 0
ODI 0 0 11 591 1460 411 54 1
CDI 0 0 5 74 1198 1994 1969 93
VCDI 0 0 0 25 348 489 5265 10346
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8976 7735 1400 799 19 0 0 0
OW 0 120 235 373 86 15 0 0
VODI 0 16 214 1008 396 61 31 0
ODI 0 1 15 610 1487 393 37 1
CDI 0 0 8 70 1196 2006 1896 206
VCDI 0 0 1 22 355 496 5349 10233

Date: 2014-08-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7570 9267 1611 653 9 0 0 0
OW 0 5 354 422 49 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 34 1230 259 22 2 0
ODI 0 0 9 190 1162 106 6 0
CDI 0 0 3 42 765 1947 81 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 334 903 9115 9703
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7570 9064 1532 721 63 1 0 0
OW 0 142 234 403 154 18 7 0
VODI 0 66 205 926 549 89 11 0
ODI 0 0 33 411 802 873 67 0
CDI 0 0 7 76 538 1687 2544 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 472 312 6575 9703

Date: 2014-08-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6588 10643 1468 592 15 1 0 0
OW 0 53 439 387 55 9 0 0
VODI 0 2 208 848 230 36 12 0
ODI 0 0 15 332 753 60 9 0
CDI 0 0 1 156 915 1106 435 121
VCDI 0 0 0 6 305 1021 6880 12165
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6588 10293 1387 647 65 10 0 0
OW 0 256 298 280 117 32 5 0
VODI 0 145 363 790 440 102 16 0
ODI 0 4 81 450 693 568 129 3
CDI 0 0 2 148 667 1179 2478 517
VCDI 0 0 0 6 291 342 4708 11766

Date: 2014-08-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7834 9682 1501 434 27 1 0 0
OW 0 192 453 309 67 18 2 0
VODI 0 25 349 501 243 60 16 0
ODI 0 0 66 277 602 69 47 0
CDI 0 0 7 227 758 1216 467 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 233 1204 7929 11029
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7834 9222 1406 485 64 6 7 0
OW 0 388 262 246 133 32 13 0
VODI 0 266 532 528 371 119 42 0
ODI 0 23 169 329 634 569 91 0
CDI 0 0 7 176 572 1519 2323 161
VCDI 0 0 0 5 156 323 5985 10868


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