Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-07-31

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-07-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87186 31381 5279 2842 49 0 0 0
OW 0 32 415 2671 206 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 35 2273 3030 54 0 0
ODI 11 7 3 230 6260 2271 72 0
CDI 31 40 3 129 4256 16507 4509 0
VCDI 23 72 2 70 390 5456 10322 920
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-07-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86352 33236 5117 2658 103 0 0 0
OW 0 124 600 2257 557 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 86 2174 3263 500 1 0
ODI 0 0 7 342 4476 3145 520 0
CDI 0 0 24 164 3021 9530 12476 63
VCDI 0 0 0 36 429 5043 9921 819
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-07-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86827 34565 4554 2315 71 0 0 0
OW 0 33 552 1788 125 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 99 2677 1124 27 0 0
ODI 0 0 20 838 5623 398 7 0
CDI 0 0 3 185 4291 6458 2934 66
VCDI 0 0 0 15 147 6029 17732 7533
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-07-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89639 32494 4619 2215 45 0 0 0
OW 0 58 535 2024 143 1 0 0
VODI 0 16 128 2603 1282 73 0 0
ODI 0 30 19 1069 4717 858 7 0
CDI 0 85 1 175 5165 6895 1467 0
VCDI 0 21 0 47 2626 7027 14755 6209
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89639 32465 4534 2389 50 0 0 0
OW 0 82 583 1755 158 1 0 0
VODI 0 13 155 2733 1350 75 0 0
ODI 0 42 29 1020 4635 916 39 0
CDI 0 87 1 194 5265 6910 1599 0
VCDI 0 15 0 42 2520 6952 14591 6209

Date: 2014-08-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91630 31523 4317 1919 26 0 0 0
OW 0 58 845 1905 251 14 0 0
VODI 0 15 154 2870 1127 168 0 0
ODI 0 0 8 1626 4200 494 54 0
CDI 0 0 0 198 6524 5832 1755 0
VCDI 0 0 0 26 2506 6676 15065 5262
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91630 31470 4341 2087 42 0 0 0
OW 0 107 744 1731 273 6 0 0
VODI 0 19 226 2880 1300 153 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 1616 3993 612 65 0
CDI 0 0 0 201 6647 5946 1883 0
VCDI 0 0 0 29 2379 6467 14926 5262

Date: 2014-08-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92472 32005 3998 1479 5 0 0 0
OW 0 72 865 1763 56 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 55 3897 795 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 417 6358 305 0 0
CDI 0 0 8 23 5685 10555 353 0
VCDI 0 0 0 26 233 3604 16515 5473
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92472 31801 3704 2126 79 0 0 0
OW 0 186 745 1591 408 12 0 0
VODI 0 94 409 2439 1555 443 0 0
ODI 0 1 58 1207 3278 1149 39 0
CDI 0 0 23 216 6270 6256 3351 99
VCDI 0 0 0 26 1542 6617 13478 5374

Date: 2014-08-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92381 32468 4513 1770 8 0 0 0
OW 0 23 745 2094 113 10 0 0
VODI 0 2 58 3383 1080 43 1 0
ODI 0 0 12 919 4852 684 11 0
CDI 0 0 8 94 5869 7941 1999 2
VCDI 0 0 0 24 655 3711 12558 9017
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92381 32154 3868 2295 171 5 0 0
OW 0 211 795 1393 507 55 1 0
VODI 0 128 545 2456 1426 457 16 0
ODI 0 0 106 1679 2535 960 98 0
CDI 0 0 22 437 6677 5791 4531 158
VCDI 0 0 0 24 1261 5121 9923 8861

Date: 2014-08-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93226 32164 4579 1803 15 0 0 0
OW 0 159 960 1986 153 7 0 0
VODI 0 16 272 2852 1538 65 17 0
ODI 0 1 36 862 4362 965 97 0
CDI 0 0 8 131 6180 6145 1900 2
VCDI 0 0 0 15 1014 4078 12049 9391
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93226 31619 4010 2333 205 12 0 0
OW 0 383 836 1199 476 66 21 0
VODI 0 257 801 2259 1546 380 51 0
ODI 0 79 155 1312 2277 749 322 0
CDI 0 2 50 530 6612 5660 5928 55
VCDI 0 0 3 16 2146 4393 7741 9338


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