Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2014-07-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-07-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2750 10116 2323 1051 24 0 0 0
OW 0 2 203 1065 74 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 79 967 843 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 170 2010 157 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 3439 3380 657 0
VCDI 0 0 1 71 1327 4512 9306 1312
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-07-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2442 10270 2464 1453 12 0 0 0
OW 0 1 160 1191 224 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 32 642 1121 24 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 88 1625 308 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 3141 3507 918 0
VCDI 0 0 0 67 1053 6113 8884 111
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-07-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5213 8643 1791 1126 34 0 0 0
OW 0 0 136 945 96 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 990 634 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 91 3760 191 0 0
CDI 0 0 9 4 2085 4860 233 0
VCDI 0 0 3 100 703 4713 8682 822
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-07-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4545 9440 1963 1049 65 0 0 0
OW 0 5 143 980 85 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 13 937 868 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 43 2994 395 17 0
CDI 0 37 4 25 1960 4726 1873 0
VCDI 0 33 10 83 355 4794 8252 151
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4545 8721 1311 932 154 1 0 0
OW 0 307 223 400 179 4 1 0
VODI 0 324 397 869 317 22 18 0
ODI 0 92 179 464 834 147 39 0
CDI 0 36 17 365 4263 5561 2791 0
VCDI 0 35 11 87 580 4196 7293 151

Date: 2014-07-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4429 9721 1885 1164 73 0 0 0
OW 0 21 160 810 232 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 33 519 1406 185 0 0
ODI 0 1 5 45 1959 1088 76 0
CDI 0 1 16 67 1491 4080 3149 0
VCDI 0 0 0 77 494 2659 9547 473
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4429 9059 1341 831 181 0 0 0
OW 0 335 221 483 206 0 0 0
VODI 0 344 367 692 427 48 0 0
ODI 0 4 152 408 818 323 1 0
CDI 0 2 18 192 3510 5160 5251 8
VCDI 0 0 0 76 513 2481 7520 465

Date: 2014-07-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5087 9479 1934 928 37 0 0 0
OW 0 0 130 643 48 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 5 639 316 0 0 0
ODI 0 12 11 94 2418 146 0 0
CDI 0 0 8 120 1556 4566 163 0
VCDI 0 0 0 38 187 3506 10956 2839
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5087 8725 1473 846 166 0 0 0
OW 0 389 200 490 182 23 0 0
VODI 0 342 285 525 392 112 7 0
ODI 0 26 115 352 498 546 157 0
CDI 0 9 15 175 2862 4754 5966 506
VCDI 0 0 0 74 462 2783 4989 2333

Date: 2014-07-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3589 10919 2146 1035 4 0 0 0
OW 0 15 205 545 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 68 696 170 44 0 0
ODI 0 0 34 352 1835 454 31 0
CDI 0 0 8 137 2379 3401 953 0
VCDI 0 0 0 24 629 2368 6169 7611
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3589 10396 1677 944 93 0 0 0
OW 0 295 307 549 132 1 0 0
VODI 0 229 351 566 372 22 0 0
ODI 0 15 101 422 1031 85 0 0
CDI 0 0 24 243 2926 5397 4490 2830
VCDI 0 0 1 65 507 762 2663 4781

Date: 2014-08-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4409 10670 2033 817 5 0 0 0
OW 0 14 225 563 42 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 46 832 260 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 937 1705 66 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 125 3642 2858 405 0
VCDI 0 0 0 26 1210 2502 8430 4035
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4409 10203 1606 923 154 0 0 0
OW 0 286 337 456 123 2 0 0
VODI 0 190 305 700 310 19 0 0
ODI 0 5 56 555 952 70 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 552 4547 3578 4022 1567
VCDI 0 1 3 114 778 1762 4813 2468


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