Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-07-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-07-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84330 30963 5619 2844 68 0 0 0
OW 0 26 701 2820 234 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 160 2698 1938 22 0 0
ODI 0 12 13 655 4806 396 4 0
CDI 0 0 1 148 7406 11498 1252 0
VCDI 0 0 1 71 1364 10797 14713 1479
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-07-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83887 31162 6346 3277 49 0 0 0
OW 0 60 639 2947 435 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 105 2128 2395 28 0 0
ODI 0 0 16 500 4548 575 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 122 7529 12027 1050 0
VCDI 0 0 0 67 1208 14226 11511 204
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-07-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87344 30175 5401 2663 53 0 0 0
OW 0 1 339 2575 202 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 10 2871 1792 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 326 8718 712 0 0
CDI 0 0 9 35 3294 19309 1192 0
VCDI 0 0 3 101 739 8194 10163 822
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-07-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87217 30633 5439 2984 70 0 0 0
OW 0 7 380 2751 212 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 36 2531 2518 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 277 6601 2105 17 0
CDI 0 37 4 89 4262 18048 2708 0
VCDI 0 33 10 83 358 7739 9717 151
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87217 28972 4199 3550 463 1 0 0
OW 0 827 635 1255 761 28 1 0
VODI 0 562 535 1777 1897 683 18 0
ODI 0 224 280 948 2275 1837 53 0
CDI 0 90 194 1013 7435 16779 3916 0
VCDI 0 35 32 172 1190 8589 8454 151

Date: 2014-07-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87408 31470 5141 2952 83 0 0 0
OW 0 41 536 2442 409 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 100 2095 3307 254 0 0
ODI 0 1 5 335 5091 3017 140 0
CDI 0 1 16 151 2659 16222 6428 0
VCDI 0 0 0 77 496 4255 11441 474
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87408 29926 4076 3187 515 5 0 0
OW 0 906 708 1277 876 54 0 0
VODI 0 567 551 1612 1770 759 57 0
ODI 0 92 290 962 2251 2161 37 0
CDI 0 23 145 808 5277 15729 9066 8
VCDI 0 0 28 206 1356 5040 8849 466

Date: 2014-07-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85459 34808 5150 2166 55 0 0 0
OW 0 1 440 1930 90 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 28 2848 1122 1 0 0
ODI 0 12 11 370 6525 405 19 0
CDI 0 0 8 168 2887 9982 536 0
VCDI 0 0 0 38 187 4577 23067 4156
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85459 33168 4207 2907 661 11 0 0
OW 0 911 529 1242 998 73 38 0
VODI 0 595 528 1357 1654 633 251 0
ODI 0 113 220 894 1651 1705 1357 0
CDI 0 35 119 790 4792 8835 15786 1359
VCDI 0 1 34 330 1110 3708 6190 2797

Date: 2014-07-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84980 36290 5053 2322 59 0 0 0
OW 0 59 548 1829 154 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 158 2550 1289 59 0 0
ODI 0 0 38 771 5213 761 42 0
CDI 0 0 8 212 4996 5824 2475 203
VCDI 0 0 0 24 1508 8895 11947 8771
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84980 34896 3983 2839 732 52 2 0
OW 0 785 652 1105 1019 95 53 0
VODI 0 549 677 1430 1540 448 249 0
ODI 0 83 313 960 2542 1274 768 53
CDI 0 43 151 977 6412 11989 9701 4094
VCDI 0 3 29 397 974 1681 3691 4827

Date: 2014-08-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89602 32205 5361 2086 15 0 0 0
OW 0 68 564 2038 189 0 0 0
VODI 0 29 140 2687 1380 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 1360 4673 491 7 0
CDI 0 1 1 177 7271 5842 704 0
VCDI 0 0 0 26 2712 8377 14960 4056
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89602 31001 4204 2925 791 31 1 0
OW 0 742 669 1042 1046 86 59 0
VODI 0 475 682 1547 1315 613 287 0
ODI 0 48 315 1072 2287 1524 1100 0
CDI 0 18 111 1274 9787 10499 8103 1567
VCDI 0 19 91 514 1014 1977 6121 2489


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