Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2014-07-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-07-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 695 9420 3232 1858 105 16 0 0
OW 1 19 225 518 68 9 0 0
VODI 0 0 85 846 513 40 1 0
ODI 0 0 1 561 1029 353 28 0
CDI 0 0 0 150 782 3023 1736 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 297 2282 10048 7913
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-07-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1335 10633 2218 1329 38 3 0 0
OW 8 29 238 711 93 0 0 0
VODI 17 0 81 872 508 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 7 669 1449 21 0 0
CDI 0 1 2 77 2834 2571 174 0
VCDI 0 0 4 36 651 4982 5929 8342
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-07-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3631 8638 2318 1229 33 0 0 0
OW 1 12 192 669 61 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 51 1237 511 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 216 2391 302 0 0
CDI 0 0 4 37 3000 3524 919 0
VCDI 0 3 20 96 817 5265 6238 4443
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-07-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2870 10559 1912 723 27 0 0 0
OW 0 2 207 934 73 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 39 1100 670 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 233 2308 98 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 3444 3678 520 0
VCDI 0 1 5 82 775 3961 9514 2117
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2870 9926 1407 682 201 0 0 0
OW 0 238 104 270 176 0 0 0
VODI 0 262 191 538 370 9 0 0
ODI 0 134 287 822 615 107 8 0
CDI 0 2 169 681 4612 3438 710 0
VCDI 0 1 5 82 1323 4183 9326 2117

Date: 2014-07-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3347 9574 2550 961 18 0 0 0
OW 0 4 171 1220 115 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 53 805 990 12 1 0
ODI 0 0 1 129 1872 100 23 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 3602 3457 353 0
VCDI 0 0 0 85 1289 6136 8820 169
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3347 8931 2012 839 161 0 0 0
OW 0 264 100 245 219 1 0 0
VODI 0 292 240 638 407 8 0 0
ODI 0 87 287 1003 766 93 3 0
CDI 0 6 136 399 4342 3837 502 0
VCDI 0 0 0 83 1991 5766 8692 169

Date: 2014-07-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2630 10571 2478 817 31 0 0 0
OW 0 0 187 956 65 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 9 1161 477 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 100 3992 88 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 1676 4981 145 0
VCDI 0 0 2 67 815 3752 9929 924
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2630 10120 1693 774 217 0 0 0
OW 0 196 200 293 264 0 0 0
VODI 0 217 392 777 470 2 0 0
ODI 0 38 303 752 921 60 6 0
CDI 0 0 86 448 3948 4610 1032 0
VCDI 0 0 2 68 1236 4151 9036 924

Date: 2014-07-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5015 8816 1939 1084 40 0 0 0
OW 0 2 142 966 116 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 1093 620 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 81 3118 600 0 0
CDI 0 0 13 6 1997 5152 656 0
VCDI 0 0 3 130 631 5084 7664 886
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5015 8226 1358 840 273 0 0 0
OW 0 273 138 468 177 36 0 0
VODI 0 252 380 960 262 109 0 0
ODI 0 65 183 633 651 310 3 0
CDI 0 2 36 325 4256 5839 1354 0
VCDI 0 0 5 134 903 4551 6963 886

Date: 2014-07-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3949 10111 2031 1053 36 0 0 0
OW 0 17 140 930 77 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 2 862 1103 17 0 0
ODI 11 7 1 29 2900 344 44 0
CDI 31 40 3 58 2219 3799 2658 0
VCDI 23 72 2 70 367 2882 9057 913
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3949 9597 1459 908 262 0 0 0
OW 0 229 230 653 152 3 0 0
VODI 0 251 370 687 328 48 0 0
ODI 5 65 107 464 821 277 33 0
CDI 9 0 9 165 4474 4533 4967 0
VCDI 51 113 4 125 665 2181 6759 913


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