Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-07-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-07-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78239 30807 7583 3532 166 16 0 0
OW 1 72 714 2327 339 19 0 0
VODI 0 35 180 2862 1927 134 2 0
ODI 0 7 54 953 3261 801 46 0
CDI 0 9 2 438 3164 9888 2266 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 463 7320 19518 9888
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-07-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80224 32212 5731 2833 95 3 0 0
OW 8 128 737 2571 385 0 0 0
VODI 17 43 228 2498 2126 76 0 0
ODI 0 7 70 1042 3142 902 68 0
CDI 0 1 8 365 5142 9255 960 0
VCDI 0 0 4 37 693 10957 15578 8902
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-07-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80480 33043 6139 2620 70 0 0 0
OW 1 13 593 2356 184 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 101 3454 1323 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 593 5533 461 0 0
CDI 0 1 9 137 5263 12550 1976 0
VCDI 0 3 22 96 822 8661 14421 6113
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-07-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80544 34643 5722 2356 69 0 0 0
OW 0 30 678 2733 207 2 0 0
VODI 0 4 131 2825 1767 29 2 0
ODI 0 0 6 649 4706 729 26 0
CDI 0 0 0 162 7450 10226 2282 0
VCDI 0 1 5 82 789 9846 15020 3327
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80544 32965 4572 3195 454 4 0 0
OW 0 812 554 1186 636 28 0 0
VODI 0 474 645 1769 1470 199 2 0
ODI 0 230 408 1278 2635 1079 193 0
CDI 0 196 358 1297 7512 11051 3676 279
VCDI 0 1 5 82 2281 8471 13459 3048

Date: 2014-07-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85248 30415 5820 2707 61 0 0 0
OW 0 43 658 2974 287 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 121 2378 2229 40 1 0
ODI 0 0 14 501 4701 524 23 0
CDI 0 0 0 152 8043 10854 1328 0
VCDI 0 0 0 85 1438 13928 12302 169
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85248 28901 4641 3407 418 4 0 0
OW 0 752 578 1106 647 44 0 0
VODI 0 469 657 1765 1746 179 0 0
ODI 0 182 411 1381 2629 1441 75 0
CDI 0 158 326 1049 8387 12379 2305 0
VCDI 0 0 0 89 2932 11299 11274 169

Date: 2014-07-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84671 31963 5852 2255 53 0 0 0
OW 0 5 520 2509 137 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 17 3338 1307 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 359 9398 338 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 3623 19561 264 0
VCDI 0 0 2 67 819 6666 12362 925
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84671 30636 4262 3230 505 2 0 0
OW 0 633 747 1169 698 8 0 0
VODI 0 428 696 1863 2084 212 0 0
ODI 0 146 421 1123 2736 1348 6 0
CDI 0 125 263 1008 6915 15489 1611 0
VCDI 0 0 2 170 2399 9508 11009 925

Date: 2014-07-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88342 29486 5226 2840 56 0 0 0
OW 0 3 340 2680 243 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 22 2796 2021 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 356 7204 1903 1 0
CDI 0 0 13 60 3688 17908 2880 0
VCDI 0 0 3 130 651 7579 9697 900
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88342 27996 3933 3161 560 1 0 0
OW 0 762 597 1375 612 50 0 0
VODI 0 481 573 2009 1869 522 4 0
ODI 0 185 269 1102 2064 2029 15 0
CDI 0 65 220 1027 7145 16426 3407 0
VCDI 0 0 14 188 1613 8380 9152 900

Date: 2014-07-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87186 31381 5279 2842 49 0 0 0
OW 0 32 415 2671 206 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 35 2273 3030 54 0 0
ODI 11 7 3 230 6260 2271 72 0
CDI 31 40 3 129 4256 16507 4509 0
VCDI 23 72 2 70 390 5456 10322 920
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87186 29950 4005 3064 577 4 0 0
OW 0 829 708 1420 622 43 0 0
VODI 0 463 587 1648 1825 618 2 0
ODI 5 165 226 924 2265 2059 47 0
CDI 9 23 206 930 7356 16474 6465 0
VCDI 51 113 5 229 1546 5090 8389 920


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