Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2014-07-10

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-07-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9 8265 2637 2434 409 0 0 0
OW 1 116 247 729 134 2 0 0
VODI 0 37 133 491 333 21 0 0
ODI 0 12 57 371 1036 69 1 0
CDI 0 5 8 375 3385 2435 185 5
VCDI 0 7 0 19 595 4612 6265 10426
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-07-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 190 8486 2708 2309 451 0 0 0
OW 0 76 367 450 84 8 0 0
VODI 0 31 133 462 436 41 0 0
ODI 0 0 89 352 1060 101 9 0
CDI 0 0 25 459 2819 3026 607 40
VCDI 0 0 0 23 562 4673 5524 10265
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-07-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 621 9296 2579 2183 169 2 0 0
OW 0 5 196 418 26 10 0 0
VODI 0 0 48 705 397 28 0 0
ODI 0 0 16 444 1635 136 4 0
CDI 0 0 5 155 1878 4215 438 27
VCDI 0 0 0 4 108 2684 7297 10137
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-07-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 589 9981 2442 2093 69 4 0 0
OW 0 30 175 464 56 10 0 0
VODI 0 0 88 846 526 30 0 0
ODI 0 0 15 412 1012 451 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 166 657 4321 889 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 207 2804 6564 10958
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 589 9512 2053 1528 138 12 0 0
OW 0 212 117 619 145 35 0 0
VODI 0 146 204 573 289 104 0 0
ODI 0 106 154 277 413 224 36 0
CDI 0 35 191 912 1134 3501 1357 0
VCDI 0 0 1 75 408 3744 6064 10958

Date: 2014-07-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 433 11086 2171 1746 38 0 0 0
OW 0 30 269 608 66 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 108 861 492 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 609 1391 87 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 130 1671 3604 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 201 4570 11197 4444
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 433 10554 1817 1383 142 3 0 0
OW 0 258 135 586 131 5 0 0
VODI 0 151 204 448 376 21 0 0
ODI 0 108 205 442 434 145 0 0
CDI 0 45 193 1015 2492 3329 172 0
VCDI 0 0 0 99 284 4772 11040 4444

Date: 2014-07-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2056 9548 2844 1132 37 0 0 0
OW 0 4 207 601 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 18 1448 333 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 292 2756 79 0 0
CDI 0 8 2 22 2347 4275 68 0
VCDI 0 85 9 70 792 5117 6514 5170
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2026 9055 2300 1128 200 0 0 0
OW 3 150 256 357 138 0 0 0
VODI 25 182 165 473 421 14 0 0
ODI 2 116 204 582 598 107 0 0
CDI 0 58 143 894 3704 3003 382 0
VCDI 0 85 12 131 1235 6347 6200 5170

Date: 2014-07-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3724 8947 2255 1031 18 0 0 0
OW 0 6 187 810 68 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 53 1048 672 27 2 0
ODI 0 0 1 241 2086 448 22 0
CDI 0 0 4 16 3086 4292 376 0
VCDI 0 0 11 62 882 4527 7500 3464
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3723 8390 1729 951 259 0 0 0
OW 1 206 159 281 151 4 0 0
VODI 0 214 203 538 378 8 0 0
ODI 0 120 213 717 617 76 0 0
CDI 0 23 193 648 4289 3979 712 0
VCDI 0 0 14 73 1118 5227 7188 3464

Date: 2014-07-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2750 10116 2323 1051 24 0 0 0
OW 0 2 203 1065 74 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 79 967 843 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 170 2010 157 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 3439 3380 657 0
VCDI 0 0 1 71 1327 4512 9306 1312
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2749 9423 1771 972 275 0 0 0
OW 1 232 143 309 206 7 0 0
VODI 0 270 203 580 305 57 0 0
ODI 0 176 266 691 625 173 14 0
CDI 0 19 224 709 4617 3239 912 1
VCDI 0 0 1 73 1689 4582 9041 1311


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