Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-07-10

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-07-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76497 29256 6009 3731 453 0 0 0
OW 7 164 693 2153 344 5 0 0
VODI 0 49 240 2290 1978 58 13 0
ODI 0 20 83 1170 3069 394 43 0
CDI 0 6 41 709 5272 6865 1420 108
VCDI 0 7 0 24 923 10836 13352 18766
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-07-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74427 32075 6239 3694 511 0 0 0
OW 6 230 843 1846 371 16 0 0
VODI 0 65 317 2303 1945 133 0 0
ODI 0 14 142 1110 2709 470 31 0
CDI 0 7 62 893 5103 7504 2008 169
VCDI 0 0 0 24 1782 11340 12495 16164
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-07-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79637 29635 5853 3446 242 2 0 0
OW 4 24 546 1997 199 10 0 0
VODI 0 9 95 3123 1640 45 0 0
ODI 0 2 40 935 4573 313 4 0
CDI 0 0 5 308 5024 10472 1409 42
VCDI 0 1 0 21 354 4796 16641 15601
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-07-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76384 33277 6458 3682 111 4 0 0
OW 0 146 543 2312 275 16 0 0
VODI 0 125 172 2867 1938 65 0 0
ODI 0 42 67 887 3242 888 4 0
CDI 0 1 1 448 3285 10330 1899 70
VCDI 0 0 0 22 775 6248 15085 15379
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76380 32081 5413 3780 389 13 0 0
OW 4 656 572 1666 625 55 0 0
VODI 0 468 667 1916 1561 283 0 0
ODI 0 201 221 1212 2182 893 140 0
CDI 0 183 351 1479 3650 8894 4905 1413
VCDI 0 2 17 165 1219 7413 11943 14036

Date: 2014-07-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78107 33574 5730 3252 90 0 0 0
OW 0 111 799 2381 335 14 0 0
VODI 0 41 203 2670 2035 104 0 0
ODI 0 5 66 1011 3636 534 18 0
CDI 0 0 2 415 4676 10110 313 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 221 10803 20097 5676
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78107 32122 4698 3618 505 8 0 0
OW 0 852 685 1503 617 44 0 0
VODI 0 337 747 1716 1547 212 21 0
ODI 0 191 317 1177 2436 1030 48 0
CDI 0 229 353 1614 4187 10721 3653 82
VCDI 0 0 0 120 1701 9550 16706 5594

Date: 2014-07-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81332 30898 6683 2560 60 0 0 0
OW 0 19 717 2039 139 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 58 3851 1158 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 616 6167 368 0 0
CDI 0 8 3 109 4187 14598 282 0
VCDI 0 85 9 73 803 8138 15199 6885
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81302 29475 5343 3603 470 3 0 0
OW 3 689 765 1288 545 59 0 0
VODI 25 327 691 1656 1634 191 0 0
ODI 2 205 303 1172 2419 1596 53 0
CDI 0 230 357 1346 5311 12476 2163 0
VCDI 0 85 12 183 2135 8781 13265 6885

Date: 2014-07-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79135 33490 7307 2836 62 0 0 0
OW 0 56 609 2630 191 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 151 2982 1608 39 5 0
ODI 0 0 9 634 4888 676 37 0
CDI 0 0 4 152 7164 10634 2109 0
VCDI 0 0 11 62 882 9590 15207 3885
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79134 31820 6202 3673 477 0 0 0
OW 1 814 517 1236 608 5 0 0
VODI 0 456 689 1809 1582 105 5 0
ODI 0 227 291 1274 2644 1180 108 0
CDI 0 232 378 1166 7344 10467 4363 0
VCDI 0 0 14 138 2140 9182 12882 3885

Date: 2014-07-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84330 30963 5619 2844 68 0 0 0
OW 0 26 701 2820 234 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 160 2698 1938 22 0 0
ODI 0 12 13 655 4806 396 4 0
CDI 0 0 1 148 7406 11498 1252 0
VCDI 0 0 1 71 1364 10797 14713 1479
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84329 29207 4437 3505 598 24 0 0
OW 1 723 561 1236 634 49 0 0
VODI 0 558 685 1790 1606 177 0 0
ODI 0 275 370 1184 2512 1412 14 0
CDI 0 247 441 1302 7639 11087 3522 160
VCDI 0 0 1 219 2827 9964 12433 1319


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