Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2014-07-03

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-06-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73907 17637 3178 1611 29 0 0 0
OW 9 2 173 582 104 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 545 621 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 117 1057 46 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 144 497 825 1373 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 255 5372 992
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-06-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73185 19744 2468 1219 63 0 0 0
OW 9 48 104 545 186 6 0 0
VODI 0 12 26 376 737 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 149 809 45 16 0
CDI 0 0 2 217 590 707 1737 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 113 2621 3336
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-07-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73726 19539 2373 1231 33 0 0 0
OW 7 0 43 560 58 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 516 590 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 107 1267 54 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 340 623 79 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 1110 4428 2387
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-07-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76320 17636 2126 994 8 0 0 0
OW 6 0 75 639 56 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 718 574 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 130 800 65 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 51 452 649 150 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 36 296 3257 4057
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76320 17580 2098 1377 78 0 0 0
OW 6 45 93 530 254 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 10 295 568 41 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 144 499 112 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 186 518 754 2209 852
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 108 1191 3205

Date: 2014-07-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77967 16679 1824 696 46 0 0 0
OW 6 5 118 603 124 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 491 832 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 48 412 246 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 190 538 973 2
VCDI 0 0 0 1 45 220 2747 4236
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77967 16656 1858 1036 101 0 0 0
OW 6 28 82 482 406 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 170 432 119 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 38 409 254 35 0
CDI 0 0 0 154 301 535 2602 1232
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 104 1083 3006

Date: 2014-07-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74258 19923 2550 554 33 0 0 0
OW 5 0 69 558 38 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 851 257 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 114 893 45 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 59 377 1280 31 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 379 4259 2564
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74257 19914 2562 1108 96 0 0 0
OW 6 9 55 570 236 6 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 127 413 94 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 99 427 204 28 0
CDI 0 0 0 232 429 1374 2722 78
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 26 1540 2486

Date: 2014-07-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80185 15089 1595 712 12 0 0 0
OW 4 4 129 625 38 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 15 795 367 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 177 558 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 127 1135 359 73 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 271 1177 4174 1472
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80185 15081 1640 1160 79 0 0 0
OW 4 11 48 580 118 5 0 0
VODI 0 1 12 188 470 42 6 0
ODI 0 0 0 200 415 162 26 0
CDI 0 0 39 308 1298 1079 2047 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 255 2168 1470

Date: 2014-07-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77544 17173 2204 972 10 0 0 0
OW 0 0 70 560 85 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 13 572 548 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 132 453 55 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 111 551 1042 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 1794 4341 856
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77544 17172 2181 1349 120 0 0 0
OW 0 1 52 402 206 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 13 150 536 85 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 162 364 259 0 0
CDI 0 0 41 284 434 2382 1606 174
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 166 2735 682


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