Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2014-07-03

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-06-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60 5538 1955 1547 64 20 3 0
OW 1 302 176 1073 42 0 0 0
VODI 0 194 112 1742 458 29 1 0
ODI 0 33 58 460 1202 114 22 0
CDI 0 12 71 427 1674 2052 406 23
VCDI 0 1 53 125 933 6749 8655 9479
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-06-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59 6420 2088 1096 64 0 0 0
OW 0 419 318 904 71 2 1 0
VODI 0 313 172 1742 304 50 16 0
ODI 0 117 110 643 544 222 38 0
CDI 0 35 86 387 1666 1553 705 11
VCDI 0 10 80 136 1253 5255 5970 13006
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-07-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 6775 2910 2184 132 2 0 0
OW 1 72 349 974 76 1 0 0
VODI 6 54 292 1021 357 15 3 0
ODI 3 7 84 411 1006 88 10 0
CDI 16 0 0 193 2126 4109 142 3
VCDI 7 0 0 37 540 4556 6683 10621
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-07-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 180 8180 2428 2167 291 0 0 0
OW 4 131 272 802 248 1 0 0
VODI 0 43 117 583 305 14 1 0
ODI 0 16 70 392 1002 69 3 0
CDI 0 8 7 355 2991 2834 216 39
VCDI 0 9 0 22 879 4129 5012 12046
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 180 7894 2213 1626 202 0 0 0
OW 4 223 229 648 147 3 0 0
VODI 0 136 186 841 512 43 3 0
ODI 0 56 101 514 602 144 22 0
CDI 0 46 118 507 2548 1524 527 100
VCDI 0 32 47 185 1705 5333 4680 11985

Date: 2014-07-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1 7993 3333 2361 256 0 0 0
OW 0 77 273 663 107 10 0 0
VODI 0 40 135 455 386 37 0 0
ODI 0 12 73 368 984 122 1 0
CDI 0 7 15 447 3515 2574 228 11
VCDI 0 4 0 7 498 4850 6956 9067
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1 7707 3130 1697 189 3 0 0
OW 0 177 203 632 163 17 0 0
VODI 0 112 171 822 391 82 0 0
ODI 0 59 135 350 675 119 6 0
CDI 0 65 170 650 3536 1788 470 34
VCDI 0 13 20 150 792 5584 6709 9044

Date: 2014-07-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 413 8981 2667 2226 323 2 0 0
OW 0 11 216 407 28 7 0 0
VODI 0 0 63 733 262 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 11 398 2004 93 0 0
CDI 0 0 10 145 1600 4694 121 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 122 3283 6289 10727
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 413 8584 2372 1533 217 9 0 0
OW 0 123 133 694 238 36 0 0
VODI 0 127 127 626 433 70 0 0
ODI 0 86 118 287 625 207 18 0
CDI 0 72 215 698 2449 2521 991 2
VCDI 0 0 2 82 377 5255 5401 10725

Date: 2014-07-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 815 9517 2345 2080 252 4 0 0
OW 0 18 203 425 42 13 0 0
VODI 0 0 59 788 490 41 0 0
ODI 0 0 19 390 1275 267 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 170 1163 4057 1085 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 104 2115 7283 10837
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 815 9026 1971 1587 274 13 0 0
OW 0 183 127 563 188 57 0 0
VODI 0 147 171 528 332 110 3 0
ODI 0 99 169 259 426 202 41 0
CDI 0 80 174 888 1882 2979 1072 3
VCDI 0 0 14 31 224 3136 7258 10834

Date: 2014-07-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 695 9420 3232 1858 105 16 0 0
OW 1 19 225 518 68 9 0 0
VODI 0 0 85 846 513 40 1 0
ODI 0 0 1 561 1029 353 28 0
CDI 0 0 0 150 782 3023 1736 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 297 2282 10048 7913
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 695 8893 2858 1578 168 13 0 0
OW 1 183 138 534 127 36 0 0
VODI 0 144 220 426 354 135 2 0
ODI 0 105 182 422 295 175 71 0
CDI 0 112 117 881 1524 2533 1040 23
VCDI 0 2 28 104 326 2831 10700 7890


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