Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-06-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-06-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69257 23701 5764 4643 135 1 0 0
OW 17 207 447 2700 409 35 0 0
VODI 0 69 279 2062 2300 119 39 0
ODI 0 30 144 892 4691 758 136 0
CDI 0 37 95 1007 4311 9973 3558 11
VCDI 0 11 37 497 1337 8596 19071 19672
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-06-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71130 23390 5763 4383 180 17 1 0
OW 15 374 592 2616 487 37 4 0
VODI 0 215 371 2031 2935 138 23 0
ODI 0 60 180 1007 3278 594 76 0
CDI 0 14 132 1257 4466 9639 5576 408
VCDI 0 2 90 350 2212 8761 19945 14299
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-06-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73290 23396 5990 4211 156 50 0 0
OW 12 80 421 2654 370 12 0 0
VODI 0 10 143 2320 2125 88 11 0
ODI 0 7 59 829 4754 1194 43 0
CDI 9 12 74 719 5667 8619 3404 0
VCDI 24 0 4 116 2956 6102 21206 15911
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-06-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72736 24964 6173 4288 157 32 0 0
OW 11 165 489 2593 353 5 1 0
VODI 0 58 169 2779 2114 91 21 0
ODI 0 26 89 950 4038 749 158 0
CDI 0 16 85 862 5884 6577 5266 13
VCDI 0 25 8 73 2977 6944 21544 13565
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72747 24895 6219 7547 1754 62 20 0
OW 0 127 142 642 548 46 26 0
VODI 0 77 155 824 1177 166 65 0
ODI 0 53 169 760 1941 576 172 0
CDI 0 63 242 1523 5155 5591 8019 1814
VCDI 0 39 86 249 4948 7957 18688 11764

Date: 2014-06-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75695 24047 5866 3686 197 39 0 0
OW 9 338 616 2324 415 12 0 0
VODI 0 102 332 3034 1956 235 8 0
ODI 0 36 158 1119 3392 739 83 0
CDI 0 14 146 1050 4697 7129 4232 612
VCDI 0 0 73 155 1752 10219 15785 16746
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75704 23976 6048 7273 1589 92 4 0
OW 0 156 144 593 488 96 5 0
VODI 0 142 180 675 1064 309 26 0
ODI 0 106 236 782 1638 541 141 2
CDI 0 119 420 1710 4464 6169 6132 3437
VCDI 0 38 163 335 3166 11166 13800 13919

Date: 2014-06-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73849 28168 6578 3234 158 2 0 0
OW 8 66 661 2351 218 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 198 3183 1782 56 5 0
ODI 0 10 141 860 5372 636 20 0
CDI 0 0 13 229 2997 10828 714 2
VCDI 0 0 11 15 822 7024 21751 15061
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73857 27550 6295 6162 1998 53 8 0
OW 0 201 156 494 481 94 29 0
VODI 0 171 191 588 863 272 27 0
ODI 0 130 279 637 1418 755 162 0
CDI 0 192 501 1708 4473 6243 8697 678
VCDI 0 25 180 283 2116 11129 13567 14385

Date: 2014-07-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75756 28145 6261 4080 192 10 0 0
OW 8 230 576 2366 340 0 0 0
VODI 7 112 212 2333 1707 44 5 0
ODI 3 14 123 978 3891 585 29 0
CDI 12 2 10 461 4292 8909 896 3
VCDI 1 6 0 36 1111 9204 17722 16376
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Date: 2014-07-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76497 29256 6009 3731 453 0 0 0
OW 7 164 693 2153 344 5 0 0
VODI 0 49 240 2290 1978 58 13 0
ODI 0 20 83 1170 3069 394 43 0
CDI 0 6 41 709 5272 6865 1420 108
VCDI 0 7 0 24 923 10836 13352 18766
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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