Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2014-06-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-06-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1020 857 989 219 57 1 0
OW 0 110 271 730 366 54 0 0
VODI 0 84 220 591 649 143 0 0
ODI 0 16 198 571 1150 609 12 0
CDI 0 0 76 572 2718 1287 434 7
VCDI 0 4 28 206 771 2966 19390 8490
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-06-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1137 1202 1302 192 2 0 0
OW 0 182 242 670 367 2 0 0
VODI 0 79 197 618 671 70 0 0
ODI 0 59 207 670 1372 586 1 0
CDI 0 0 130 683 2453 980 286 11
VCDI 0 0 0 201 794 1517 11030 17953
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-06-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3 1768 1488 1504 332 0 0 0
OW 2 37 256 637 391 5 0 0
VODI 0 0 137 789 814 71 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 440 1223 1760 19 0
CDI 0 0 1 291 1144 1464 485 1
VCDI 0 3 37 187 582 3242 13491 13249
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-06-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2403 1612 1705 73 0 0 0
OW 0 51 257 875 298 6 0 0
VODI 0 18 147 755 910 54 12 0
ODI 0 0 41 502 1946 772 242 0
CDI 0 1 29 452 1145 981 887 25
VCDI 0 1 23 393 1743 3531 9180 14796
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2415 1605 1845 196 0 0 0
OW 0 37 270 743 305 5 0 0
VODI 0 18 133 735 857 43 5 0
ODI 0 2 49 484 1614 623 147 0
CDI 0 0 29 476 1325 1129 955 29
VCDI 0 2 23 399 1818 3544 9214 14792

Date: 2014-06-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2862 1900 1564 56 2 0 0
OW 0 144 253 1162 184 4 0 0
VODI 0 114 133 931 1254 20 1 0
ODI 0 9 94 445 2129 268 15 0
CDI 0 5 67 442 1162 985 858 1
VCDI 0 0 29 319 1298 3291 8436 15429
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2884 1893 1926 85 2 0 0
OW 0 110 263 830 276 4 0 0
VODI 0 110 134 852 1020 10 0 0
ODI 0 25 70 497 1893 249 15 0
CDI 0 5 74 427 1435 1100 1030 1
VCDI 0 0 42 331 1374 3205 8265 15429

Date: 2014-06-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3484 2376 1620 65 15 0 0
OW 0 71 249 1140 144 7 0 0
VODI 0 21 60 1238 651 19 0 0
ODI 0 14 22 480 2417 251 12 0
CDI 0 68 26 482 1647 1529 196 0
VCDI 0 49 1 48 1815 3893 12099 9657
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3260 2211 1963 207 18 0 0
OW 0 139 252 785 323 8 0 0
VODI 0 91 131 887 1350 98 3 0
ODI 0 49 52 441 1117 462 24 0
CDI 0 32 59 643 1088 1122 1222 0
VCDI 0 136 29 289 2654 4006 11058 9657

Date: 2014-06-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9 4045 2615 1821 124 0 0 0
OW 1 131 123 1199 112 1 1 0
VODI 0 100 81 1180 677 9 11 0
ODI 1 6 47 474 2016 66 40 0
CDI 8 0 73 422 1877 1557 685 5
VCDI 22 2 4 129 2628 4539 7563 11462
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8 3886 2366 1942 172 0 0 0
OW 2 164 209 952 174 1 0 0
VODI 0 164 124 1200 1008 11 11 0
ODI 0 46 63 414 1270 54 46 0
CDI 6 22 70 391 1586 1069 1379 24
VCDI 25 2 111 326 3224 5037 6864 11443

Date: 2014-06-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60 5538 1955 1547 64 20 3 0
OW 1 302 176 1073 42 0 0 0
VODI 0 194 112 1742 458 29 1 0
ODI 0 33 58 460 1202 114 22 0
CDI 0 12 71 427 1674 2052 406 23
VCDI 0 1 53 125 933 6749 8655 9479
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60 5235 1747 1856 144 20 3 0
OW 1 291 208 905 32 4 0 0
VODI 0 381 157 1478 456 19 0 0
ODI 0 100 110 435 741 52 0 0
CDI 0 36 80 471 1565 2143 384 0
VCDI 0 37 123 229 1435 6726 8700 9502


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