Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-06-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-06-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69542 19997 4246 4251 571 85 6 0
OW 21 164 467 2249 743 87 18 0
VODI 0 108 287 1490 2191 243 33 0
ODI 0 27 228 767 2949 1105 91 0
CDI 0 6 108 892 4967 10511 2954 7
VCDI 0 4 28 264 1036 8922 33965 11418
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-06-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69664 20705 4784 4401 355 36 8 0
OW 20 307 446 2239 729 47 13 0
VODI 0 128 303 1627 1873 167 54 0
ODI 0 84 253 1052 3301 1011 143 0
CDI 0 15 195 1048 4760 9973 4675 11
VCDI 0 0 0 311 1516 7609 23607 19578
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-06-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70175 21103 5634 4443 448 3 1 0
OW 19 57 430 2179 605 25 8 0
VODI 0 6 212 2015 2209 111 36 0
ODI 0 3 50 713 3960 2218 96 0
CDI 0 0 11 638 3227 9512 3157 1
VCDI 0 3 37 203 820 7945 30425 14310
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-06-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71035 21937 5298 4611 165 4 0 0
OW 18 103 470 2389 581 36 0 0
VODI 0 32 260 1952 2258 175 36 0
ODI 0 8 73 890 3892 1605 415 0
CDI 0 2 62 858 3766 8920 4190 25
VCDI 0 1 23 405 2146 9189 22608 16610
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71035 21953 5295 5008 335 1 0 0
OW 18 85 482 2047 639 41 1 0
VODI 0 32 238 1880 2250 217 32 0
ODI 0 9 80 864 3372 1398 298 0
CDI 0 2 68 892 4033 9118 4618 29
VCDI 0 2 23 414 2179 9154 22300 16606

Date: 2014-06-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71392 22646 5362 4453 203 3 0 0
OW 16 266 516 2680 467 26 3 0
VODI 0 139 319 2029 2683 177 48 0
ODI 0 19 191 853 3743 965 191 0
CDI 0 12 129 1089 4291 9826 4704 193
VCDI 0 6 37 350 2049 7548 18885 18539
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71392 22656 5379 5168 285 2 0 0
OW 16 243 493 2003 629 25 1 0
VODI 0 134 326 1975 2497 225 59 0
ODI 0 33 158 849 3342 921 166 0
CDI 0 16 151 1100 4650 10341 5170 263
VCDI 0 6 47 359 2033 7031 18435 18469

Date: 2014-06-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73144 22604 5838 4003 133 24 0 0
OW 12 154 688 2521 229 15 0 0
VODI 0 23 127 3220 1504 54 4 0
ODI 0 14 33 932 5804 562 36 0
CDI 0 72 30 735 5146 11209 762 0
VCDI 0 52 2 49 1818 6130 24807 14558
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73144 22213 5671 5037 353 26 0 0
OW 12 302 446 1959 750 42 5 0
VODI 0 160 283 1883 2693 314 41 0
ODI 0 60 146 892 2846 884 130 0
CDI 0 48 143 1387 4845 9857 6234 282
VCDI 0 136 29 302 3147 6871 19199 14276

Date: 2014-06-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71446 25261 6536 4252 201 28 0 0
OW 12 151 419 2740 330 15 1 0
VODI 0 107 156 2505 1931 114 15 0
ODI 1 6 84 977 4595 773 96 0
CDI 8 8 76 743 5291 8081 4512 5
VCDI 22 2 5 129 2778 6966 17562 18108
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71445 24776 6052 4912 433 52 0 0
OW 13 335 453 1922 744 59 13 0
VODI 0 274 284 2055 2296 161 85 0
ODI 0 95 171 898 2878 786 235 0
CDI 6 53 204 1233 4879 7229 8901 1497
VCDI 25 2 112 326 3896 7690 12952 16616

Date: 2014-06-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73967 25109 6018 3643 146 34 25 0
OW 10 370 608 2332 308 4 0 0
VODI 0 226 294 2972 1890 140 1 0
ODI 0 58 140 1143 3669 550 31 0
CDI 0 14 112 1139 6385 6621 4499 23
VCDI 0 2 53 128 1266 10076 19964 13078
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73967 24308 5645 4393 578 69 25 0
OW 10 541 450 1763 552 67 5 0
VODI 0 548 372 2270 1791 270 31 0
ODI 0 234 275 1112 2464 672 43 0
CDI 0 110 360 1590 6279 6982 8040 1772
VCDI 0 38 123 229 2000 9365 16376 11329


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