Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2014-06-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-06-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 628 568 326 158 83 0 0
OW 0 33 90 424 212 101 0 0
VODI 0 0 41 524 395 253 5 0
ODI 0 0 23 551 719 588 26 0
CDI 0 0 78 1008 1434 4515 503 0
VCDI 0 0 19 247 604 2332 9892 19486
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-06-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 632 610 490 244 44 0 0
OW 0 47 86 354 205 63 2 0
VODI 0 23 46 642 603 130 5 0
ODI 0 14 53 516 919 416 198 0
CDI 0 2 55 1177 2040 3429 691 6
VCDI 0 0 36 320 603 2022 9336 19807
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-06-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 927 542 620 195 56 0 0
OW 0 29 125 729 136 36 0 0
VODI 0 3 57 869 780 79 3 0
ODI 0 0 58 786 1145 526 46 0
CDI 0 0 8 495 1642 2357 1335 0
VCDI 0 0 0 118 554 1539 11524 18547
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-06-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 954 699 925 202 28 0 0
OW 0 99 221 702 303 20 0 0
VODI 0 66 244 684 799 58 0 0
ODI 0 34 152 630 1446 186 2 0
CDI 0 3 35 629 3290 1142 257 0
VCDI 0 0 23 189 620 2938 18915 9371
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 979 734 968 282 40 0 0
OW 0 88 203 642 287 15 0 0
VODI 0 63 238 679 832 63 0 0
ODI 0 24 145 628 1072 148 4 0
CDI 0 2 31 659 3478 1076 208 0
VCDI 0 0 23 183 709 3030 18962 9371

Date: 2014-06-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1181 983 1049 276 0 0 0
OW 0 218 259 661 366 23 0 0
VODI 0 195 221 519 440 258 0 0
ODI 0 144 176 583 998 749 23 0
CDI 0 1 119 590 2270 1051 651 13
VCDI 0 0 0 239 695 1567 16040 13308
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1242 1039 1106 365 5 0 0
OW 0 177 221 585 281 21 0 0
VODI 0 170 207 492 386 309 0 0
ODI 0 150 204 610 721 471 19 0
CDI 0 0 87 601 2575 1230 562 20
VCDI 0 0 0 247 717 1612 16133 13301

Date: 2014-06-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1433 1445 1447 168 0 0 0
OW 0 89 343 733 254 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 133 1034 591 1 0 0
ODI 0 1 24 543 2068 317 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 203 1910 1818 99 4
VCDI 0 0 0 107 463 2457 12438 15742
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1255 1288 1547 331 0 0 0
OW 0 105 201 451 385 10 0 0
VODI 0 129 178 510 471 309 0 0
ODI 0 35 189 766 957 449 1 0
CDI 0 0 89 654 2689 1170 316 0
VCDI 0 0 0 139 621 2655 12220 15746

Date: 2014-06-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2089 1593 1629 204 0 0 0
OW 0 34 288 683 379 6 0 0
VODI 0 0 135 758 815 141 1 0
ODI 0 0 15 520 959 1425 500 0
CDI 0 0 2 551 833 1107 950 15
VCDI 0 29 13 301 1555 3472 10418 14446
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1822 1273 1491 360 15 0 0
OW 0 159 224 447 297 150 8 0
VODI 0 129 245 602 353 296 108 0
ODI 0 13 196 781 598 718 267 0
CDI 0 0 100 842 1561 1338 1118 34
VCDI 0 29 8 279 1576 3634 10368 14427

Date: 2014-06-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2482 1893 1664 16 0 0 0
OW 0 85 271 1117 164 5 0 0
VODI 0 34 149 940 849 9 0 0
ODI 0 3 69 500 2806 57 18 0
CDI 0 2 40 454 1253 836 812 11
VCDI 0 0 37 457 1101 3007 7338 17387
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2271 1549 1623 234 0 0 0
OW 0 175 250 583 276 1 0 0
VODI 0 111 266 885 716 5 0 0
ODI 0 35 211 813 1283 38 4 0
CDI 0 14 164 834 2406 811 684 34
VCDI 0 0 19 394 1274 3059 7480 17364


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