Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-06-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-06-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66273 21058 3858 3155 606 122 0 0
OW 38 172 323 1678 893 174 25 0
VODI 0 122 156 1492 1675 505 69 0
ODI 0 26 107 937 2676 1478 198 0
CDI 0 13 132 1237 3452 9530 2856 10
VCDI 0 0 20 335 1239 8170 29641 22597
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-06-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68256 19567 3591 3569 806 111 0 0
OW 25 210 346 1521 993 179 16 0
VODI 0 187 126 1626 1895 510 110 0
ODI 0 61 136 765 2571 1260 638 4
CDI 0 27 125 1329 3862 7709 4745 19
VCDI 0 0 40 569 1291 8838 24248 25167
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-06-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68593 20680 3852 3417 510 96 4 0
OW 41 63 357 2045 557 60 8 0
VODI 0 20 111 2103 1967 146 23 0
ODI 0 8 87 1074 3290 920 94 4
CDI 0 22 39 961 3760 8894 2607 26
VCDI 0 0 0 182 886 6542 30629 22370
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-06-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70495 18871 3958 4216 548 33 0 0
OW 32 141 408 2154 712 50 2 0
VODI 0 93 291 1706 2271 181 16 0
ODI 0 44 181 796 3237 713 115 0
CDI 0 4 70 867 5114 9184 2461 0
VCDI 0 0 23 261 872 9245 36014 11669
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70495 18898 4011 4537 703 52 0 0
OW 32 128 372 1921 649 54 2 0
VODI 0 86 282 1591 2298 178 14 0
ODI 0 37 173 788 2802 754 101 0
CDI 0 4 70 915 5345 9107 2593 0
VCDI 0 0 23 248 957 9261 35898 11669

Date: 2014-06-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69674 20341 4522 4241 485 26 6 0
OW 21 273 489 2274 655 52 15 0
VODI 0 214 311 1678 1654 351 27 0
ODI 0 150 202 859 2986 1198 91 0
CDI 0 7 157 1028 4607 10807 3393 13
VCDI 0 0 0 304 1068 6684 30464 15721
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69674 20413 4615 4606 616 45 13 0
OW 21 221 414 2039 555 53 15 0
VODI 0 186 293 1485 1729 398 26 0
ODI 0 163 229 884 2491 1000 88 0
CDI 0 2 130 1063 4983 11199 3418 20
VCDI 0 0 0 307 1081 6423 30436 15714

Date: 2014-06-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69488 21138 5564 4273 275 6 0 0
OW 19 113 581 2243 390 19 3 0
VODI 0 8 159 2741 1646 34 26 0
ODI 0 4 58 788 5377 557 81 0
CDI 0 4 1 495 4072 10878 1204 4
VCDI 0 1 5 117 578 6620 31062 16416
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69488 20875 5324 5094 545 37 12 0
OW 19 165 394 1757 715 39 28 0
VODI 0 158 281 1441 1595 393 114 0
ODI 0 56 224 1108 2746 930 362 0
CDI 0 14 140 1045 5654 9082 6426 0
VCDI 0 0 5 212 1083 7633 25434 16420

Date: 2014-06-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70127 21736 5573 4697 355 11 0 0
OW 19 58 498 2224 590 26 10 0
VODI 0 10 229 1909 2205 244 26 0
ODI 0 7 44 928 3229 2101 586 0
CDI 0 0 23 942 3225 7935 4678 37
VCDI 0 29 13 320 2051 9000 25676 15677
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70126 21221 5070 5081 656 57 14 0
OW 20 347 425 1566 715 201 34 0
VODI 0 189 462 1373 1306 492 153 0
ODI 0 37 268 1388 2384 1367 439 0
CDI 0 17 147 1296 4552 9140 9739 75
VCDI 0 29 8 316 2042 8060 20597 15639

Date: 2014-06-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69257 23701 5764 4643 135 1 0 0
OW 17 207 447 2700 409 35 0 0
VODI 0 69 279 2062 2300 119 39 0
ODI 0 30 144 892 4691 758 136 0
CDI 0 37 95 1007 4311 9973 3558 11
VCDI 0 11 37 497 1337 8596 19071 19672
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69256 23230 5220 5223 602 64 15 0
OW 18 419 460 1501 688 61 19 0
VODI 0 271 484 1608 1783 228 27 0
ODI 0 61 373 1499 3085 816 73 0
CDI 0 55 208 1531 5490 10523 6608 161
VCDI 0 19 21 439 1535 7790 16062 19522


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