Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-06-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-05-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66008 18830 3487 2854 458 20 3 0
OW 45 66 252 1128 910 65 30 0
VODI 0 92 260 878 1697 372 80 0
ODI 0 70 139 731 1737 722 154 16
CDI 0 8 95 624 4030 8625 2802 27
VCDI 0 20 57 358 1674 7665 38604 21355
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-06-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67010 18851 3078 2815 612 11 7 0
OW 45 140 251 1121 1036 122 36 0
VODI 0 122 295 935 1446 396 108 6
ODI 0 101 189 872 1732 819 224 12
CDI 0 30 123 1313 6162 6572 1883 26
VCDI 0 0 99 698 3259 12293 30867 21331
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-06-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67560 18841 3598 2936 480 26 0 0
OW 42 148 297 1632 827 64 6 0
VODI 0 16 137 1679 1701 200 53 0
ODI 0 7 46 956 3279 824 155 0
CDI 0 2 61 882 4269 9798 2507 9
VCDI 0 0 36 338 1132 10879 31387 20238
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-06-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67484 19608 3794 3171 437 83 0 0
OW 42 162 319 1770 757 133 19 0
VODI 0 61 170 1431 1900 288 113 0
ODI 0 13 82 872 3061 1016 221 0
CDI 0 5 119 1062 3898 8390 3658 9
VCDI 0 0 16 363 1106 8224 31339 21852
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67484 19602 3817 3356 574 91 0 0
OW 42 144 292 1584 766 138 25 0
VODI 0 83 164 1443 1826 379 116 0
ODI 0 15 89 828 2968 977 212 0
CDI 0 5 112 1091 3866 8225 3639 8
VCDI 0 0 26 367 1159 8324 31358 21853

Date: 2014-06-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67454 20154 3570 3420 801 106 5 0
OW 36 204 336 1516 1021 157 26 0
VODI 0 163 123 1644 1696 478 72 0
ODI 0 39 129 1013 2785 1269 256 5
CDI 0 20 116 1357 4780 7787 3274 19
VCDI 0 0 47 432 1300 7702 27440 24296
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67454 20158 3644 3705 971 129 4 0
OW 36 173 267 1259 995 167 28 0
VODI 0 181 118 1566 1752 528 86 0
ODI 0 47 125 992 2568 1250 246 8
CDI 0 21 105 1438 4599 7819 3374 18
VCDI 0 0 62 422 1498 7606 27335 24294

Date: 2014-06-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68921 19989 3540 3159 569 42 0 0
OW 43 165 418 1824 496 59 4 0
VODI 0 13 113 2464 1619 102 11 0
ODI 0 7 92 1147 4178 541 37 0
CDI 0 23 41 810 3809 10594 1016 0
VCDI 0 2 0 162 859 5518 30514 24147
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68923 19634 3466 3675 1049 170 8 0
OW 41 218 265 1321 957 187 26 0
VODI 0 214 136 1625 2009 476 122 0
ODI 0 75 146 968 2113 1221 780 0
CDI 0 33 154 1259 3686 6301 6077 71
VCDI 0 25 37 718 1716 8501 24569 24076

Date: 2014-06-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68728 20278 4124 3765 539 132 8 0
OW 36 124 402 2014 631 143 7 0
VODI 0 84 290 1867 1871 367 31 0
ODI 0 94 162 917 2620 1161 233 0
CDI 0 17 87 893 4495 8653 2435 0
VCDI 0 0 0 261 855 8504 31938 18282
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68730 19761 3818 4244 1025 378 21 0
OW 34 273 298 1429 900 225 54 0
VODI 0 264 280 1347 1843 597 189 0
ODI 0 158 278 794 1957 1499 734 0
CDI 0 138 368 1210 3636 6014 6831 18
VCDI 0 3 23 693 1650 10247 26823 18264

Date: 2014-06-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69542 19997 4246 4251 571 85 6 0
OW 21 164 467 2249 743 87 18 0
VODI 0 108 287 1490 2191 243 33 0
ODI 0 27 228 767 2949 1105 91 0
CDI 0 6 108 892 4967 10511 2954 7
VCDI 0 4 28 264 1036 8922 33965 11418
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69542 19429 3853 4647 1105 216 24 0
OW 21 279 307 1434 1017 182 41 0
VODI 0 285 315 1249 1960 639 293 0
ODI 0 160 292 683 2064 1414 711 0
CDI 0 149 503 1148 4188 5906 6089 19
VCDI 0 4 94 752 2123 12596 29909 11406


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