Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2014-05-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-05-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 113 174 174 30 0 0 0
OW 0 1 111 192 58 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 49 171 86 21 1 0
ODI 0 0 12 159 219 81 52 0
CDI 0 0 2 347 961 1299 1029 11
VCDI 0 0 0 158 916 4275 10077 25086
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-05-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 160 203 268 47 0 0 0
OW 0 33 69 141 51 2 0 0
VODI 0 5 79 154 67 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 47 156 187 85 21 1
CDI 0 0 17 475 1293 1390 1215 69
VCDI 0 0 0 193 736 2999 10902 24786
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-05-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 192 380 245 24 0 0 0
OW 0 12 93 170 37 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 52 261 77 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 15 366 343 69 2 0
CDI 0 0 12 327 2099 2105 284 2
VCDI 0 0 0 147 1831 3715 9363 23636
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-05-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 141 453 203 5 0 0 0
OW 0 10 133 174 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 72 232 67 12 0 0
ODI 0 7 12 412 319 72 0 0
CDI 0 11 17 341 2088 2432 446 0
VCDI 0 2 53 314 766 3875 14983 18183
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 142 488 244 8 0 0 0
OW 0 10 110 134 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 59 245 59 6 0 0
ODI 0 7 17 399 273 76 0 0
CDI 0 10 20 349 2064 2437 408 0
VCDI 0 1 46 305 847 3872 15021 18183

Date: 2014-05-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 258 395 167 6 0 0 0
OW 0 28 148 164 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 92 350 52 3 0 0
ODI 0 6 43 566 347 25 5 0
CDI 0 6 6 865 4413 1163 205 0
VCDI 0 12 75 374 2277 1997 12862 18941
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 273 426 199 8 0 0 0
OW 0 13 128 130 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 85 345 49 0 0 0
ODI 0 6 39 546 299 25 7 0
CDI 0 6 11 894 4127 1164 178 0
VCDI 0 12 70 372 2617 1999 12887 18941

Date: 2014-06-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 372 470 151 13 0 0 0
OW 0 9 199 329 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 17 774 414 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 556 1148 156 2 0
CDI 0 0 18 723 1950 3927 617 0
VCDI 0 0 22 246 588 2175 12991 17973
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 359 403 181 12 0 0 0
OW 0 22 128 141 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 122 318 75 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 33 569 407 128 4 0
CDI 0 0 8 982 2178 2983 795 0
VCDI 0 0 45 588 1434 3144 12811 17973

Date: 2014-06-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 541 549 371 63 1 0 0
OW 0 16 79 432 199 52 0 0
VODI 0 0 10 608 355 161 0 0
ODI 0 0 15 567 745 338 89 0
CDI 0 3 61 803 1246 3767 1422 0
VCDI 0 0 51 321 608 3737 14487 14169
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 479 365 202 12 0 0 0
OW 0 59 102 120 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 19 108 363 198 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 57 729 502 179 7 0
CDI 0 2 51 1094 1412 2791 1624 0
VCDI 0 1 82 594 1073 5073 14367 14169

Date: 2014-06-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 628 568 326 158 83 0 0
OW 0 33 90 424 212 101 0 0
VODI 0 0 41 524 395 253 5 0
ODI 0 0 23 551 719 588 26 0
CDI 0 0 78 1008 1434 4515 503 0
VCDI 0 0 19 247 604 2332 9892 19486
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 533 414 175 16 0 0 0
OW 0 64 84 133 36 8 0 0
VODI 0 47 98 357 306 17 1 0
ODI 0 17 90 744 584 323 8 0
CDI 0 0 123 1244 1810 4275 559 0
VCDI 0 0 10 427 770 3249 9858 19486


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