Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-05-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-05-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64280 18567 3179 2434 327 2 5 0
OW 52 43 283 1080 537 84 16 0
VODI 0 39 293 862 1119 462 98 0
ODI 0 12 107 718 1904 831 251 0
CDI 0 0 16 762 3217 5830 1990 11
VCDI 0 0 0 468 2245 11117 24790 39017
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-05-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65274 18449 2881 2242 476 31 3 0
OW 55 143 343 962 522 104 22 0
VODI 0 145 240 944 1319 339 160 0
ODI 0 44 178 626 1585 633 292 3
CDI 0 0 120 977 3720 5711 2896 79
VCDI 0 0 0 449 2338 9752 25716 37275
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-05-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65772 18468 3463 2734 422 6 0 0
OW 50 77 250 1046 474 43 5 0
VODI 0 48 194 1014 1650 149 21 10
ODI 0 2 51 700 2675 711 73 34
CDI 0 0 15 551 4541 8901 1569 60
VCDI 0 0 0 239 2472 8400 27174 32984
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-05-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66090 18312 3661 2825 466 14 0 0
OW 49 63 237 1133 763 72 7 6
VODI 0 88 234 861 1813 262 45 33
ODI 0 39 89 774 2022 651 128 12
CDI 0 11 58 611 4387 8320 2034 35
VCDI 0 2 53 343 1667 8271 37516 22991
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66090 18319 3721 2969 514 25 2 0
OW 49 66 202 1034 778 57 7 2
VODI 0 85 190 838 1828 328 43 34
ODI 0 34 116 722 1869 641 118 14
CDI 0 10 57 642 4352 8353 1987 30
VCDI 0 1 46 342 1777 8186 37573 22997

Date: 2014-05-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66394 19105 3254 2760 512 12 5 0
OW 45 111 249 1086 978 123 31 0
VODI 0 114 265 970 1511 464 80 5
ODI 0 98 163 912 1604 722 156 11
CDI 0 12 121 1102 6272 6330 2379 19
VCDI 0 12 75 525 3322 9561 34028 21550
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66394 19128 3299 2896 609 18 8 0
OW 45 104 238 1028 1036 164 32 0
VODI 0 112 231 885 1359 471 73 5
ODI 0 81 162 871 1513 764 151 11
CDI 0 15 127 1154 6021 6512 2423 15
VCDI 0 12 70 521 3661 9283 33992 21554

Date: 2014-06-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67644 18622 3347 2477 246 5 2 0
OW 44 293 527 1576 516 29 9 0
VODI 0 28 173 1845 1721 108 37 0
ODI 0 2 57 836 3995 634 75 0
CDI 0 0 22 887 3994 10949 1452 0
VCDI 0 0 22 281 881 11011 32554 20147
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67644 18496 3208 3103 712 53 11 0
OW 44 139 312 1029 986 176 31 0
VODI 0 168 269 939 1137 359 95 0
ODI 0 79 194 857 1856 916 227 0
CDI 0 57 92 1225 4356 7929 2809 0
VCDI 0 6 73 749 2306 13303 30956 20147

Date: 2014-06-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67769 18794 3683 3031 714 32 2 0
OW 42 136 275 1542 1064 108 9 0
VODI 0 17 163 1420 1735 419 59 0
ODI 0 5 53 926 2868 1062 242 2
CDI 0 3 92 997 3960 9245 3153 8
VCDI 0 0 51 385 988 10208 33795 17991
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67769 18398 3329 3305 1430 106 14 0
OW 42 181 253 823 962 216 67 0
VODI 0 196 257 952 1167 373 149 0
ODI 0 104 194 1067 2023 1119 415 2
CDI 0 75 188 1353 3770 6913 3613 15
VCDI 0 1 96 801 1977 12347 33002 17984

Date: 2014-06-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66273 21058 3858 3155 606 122 0 0
OW 38 172 323 1678 893 174 25 0
VODI 0 122 156 1492 1675 505 69 0
ODI 0 26 107 937 2676 1478 198 0
CDI 0 13 132 1237 3452 9530 2856 10
VCDI 0 0 20 335 1239 8170 29641 22597
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66268 20561 3526 3434 1261 191 19 0
OW 43 221 294 892 566 175 75 0
VODI 0 260 304 1108 1139 369 179 0
ODI 0 169 183 1260 1976 1640 405 0
CDI 0 176 234 1516 3956 8070 2673 13
VCDI 0 4 55 624 1643 9534 29438 22594


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