Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2014-05-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-05-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64045 18419 2557 1596 507 94 3 0
OW 57 52 149 451 413 34 13 0
VODI 0 1 40 321 570 177 35 0
ODI 0 0 57 300 623 456 183 0
CDI 0 0 42 203 1503 2384 509 0
VCDI 0 0 1 95 287 2667 4934 5322
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-05-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64049 18522 2574 1840 411 55 5 0
OW 54 26 94 533 409 15 15 0
VODI 0 0 48 429 887 61 43 0
ODI 0 17 55 238 904 355 108 0
CDI 0 4 58 194 1505 2390 738 0
VCDI 0 0 2 76 297 2533 4306 5250
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-05-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63759 18667 2609 2053 454 16 1 0
OW 53 34 130 633 369 20 7 0
VODI 0 4 68 410 952 97 17 0
ODI 0 0 35 360 1546 466 29 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 1101 3782 593 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 45 675 4941 5136
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-05-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64547 17955 2692 2240 310 2 1 0
OW 52 32 110 694 400 25 8 0
VODI 0 8 62 506 868 242 13 0
ODI 0 0 64 429 1403 560 58 0
CDI 0 0 0 100 1537 3005 622 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 92 1089 4673 4701
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64547 17961 2699 2306 314 4 6 0
OW 52 26 99 617 415 46 6 0
VODI 0 8 69 489 879 328 13 0
ODI 0 0 60 435 1322 461 53 0
CDI 0 0 1 122 1575 2877 648 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 105 1207 4649 4701

Date: 2014-05-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65667 17563 2501 1912 322 8 4 0
OW 55 28 114 628 402 81 8 0
VODI 0 89 198 519 895 346 30 0
ODI 0 24 85 359 1176 481 115 0
CDI 0 0 28 140 1405 2945 838 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 139 831 4118 5046
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65667 17568 2527 1948 331 15 7 0
OW 55 33 89 587 388 107 7 0
VODI 0 79 182 494 922 346 42 0
ODI 0 24 96 369 1192 460 100 0
CDI 0 0 32 160 1354 2851 795 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 152 913 4162 5046

Date: 2014-05-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65552 18254 2801 1836 315 11 0 0
OW 50 30 124 780 286 28 1 0
VODI 0 0 50 678 912 45 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 128 2167 303 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 1566 3511 484 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 463 4815 3879
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65549 18017 2571 1861 467 44 5 0
OW 53 114 176 539 530 136 29 0
VODI 0 116 104 557 1007 214 23 0
ODI 0 36 82 278 1138 379 80 0
CDI 0 1 42 193 1713 2429 822 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 403 1159 4354 3879

Date: 2014-05-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65976 18096 2911 2179 359 10 0 0
OW 44 18 66 699 443 39 4 0
VODI 0 0 30 360 1390 198 15 0
ODI 0 0 0 170 1419 452 68 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 1398 3760 606 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1036 7052 274
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65973 17920 2606 1999 631 69 4 0
OW 47 108 179 522 600 186 27 0
VODI 0 73 156 500 942 290 45 0
ODI 0 13 63 203 1029 355 113 0
CDI 0 0 3 212 1687 3237 523 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 120 1358 7033 274

Date: 2014-05-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66008 18469 2772 2257 384 8 2 0
OW 45 25 32 727 767 29 7 0
VODI 0 2 29 348 1399 284 9 0
ODI 0 0 7 123 1049 464 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 1268 3572 544 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 42 839 7351 179
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66007 18270 2514 2082 805 16 14 0
OW 46 169 217 624 666 183 18 0
VODI 0 57 109 429 941 295 35 0
ODI 0 0 0 245 838 546 55 0
CDI 0 0 0 115 1512 3104 585 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 147 1052 7225 179


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