Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2014-05-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-05-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 86 54 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 6 69 20 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 18 67 111 22 22 16
ODI 0 0 2 98 189 84 88 74
CDI 0 0 0 90 338 374 293 88
VCDI 0 0 0 137 1120 7312 10815 10484
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-05-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 123 66 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 22 51 88 19 0 7 0
VODI 0 2 39 158 71 24 46 50
ODI 0 0 26 142 187 41 120 79
CDI 0 0 13 124 449 261 429 118
VCDI 0 0 2 254 1213 7463 12036 8355
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-05-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 150 118 152 4 0 0 0
OW 0 0 102 264 75 5 0 0
VODI 0 0 25 229 220 18 28 38
ODI 0 0 17 99 297 78 90 50
CDI 0 0 2 151 425 809 274 57
VCDI 0 0 0 173 930 4873 14085 8244
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-05-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 128 155 169 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 88 265 45 7 40 2
VODI 0 0 45 190 240 20 74 18
ODI 0 0 9 132 378 108 158 14
CDI 0 0 0 215 518 1200 598 22
VCDI 0 0 0 275 924 4544 13064 8436
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 128 179 235 7 0 0 0
OW 0 0 74 189 57 9 30 1
VODI 0 0 40 182 221 23 83 15
ODI 0 0 4 149 342 89 157 13
CDI 0 0 0 202 556 1183 585 27
VCDI 0 0 0 289 923 4575 13079 8436

Date: 2014-05-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 120 235 108 2 0 0 0
OW 0 45 71 240 56 16 0 0
VODI 0 32 50 231 283 139 6 0
ODI 0 0 47 144 385 185 59 0
CDI 0 0 25 318 862 1786 486 0
VCDI 0 0 0 296 1458 6367 10740 7290
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 133 258 210 28 0 0 0
OW 0 24 39 153 62 12 0 0
VODI 0 40 64 200 251 151 8 0
ODI 0 0 39 157 353 175 69 0
CDI 0 0 28 370 939 1612 500 0
VCDI 0 0 0 247 1413 6543 10714 7290

Date: 2014-05-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 133 296 168 8 0 0 0
OW 0 70 85 279 56 2 2 0
VODI 0 17 95 351 343 33 8 2
ODI 0 0 13 258 647 134 50 18
CDI 0 0 0 158 896 3677 416 71
VCDI 0 0 0 131 616 3577 10988 8484
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 102 247 255 46 1 0 0
OW 0 45 52 108 91 7 14 24
VODI 0 27 50 172 278 35 42 51
ODI 0 14 54 186 299 132 128 79
CDI 0 32 86 386 791 1258 908 106
VCDI 0 0 0 238 1061 5990 10372 8315

Date: 2014-05-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 154 201 378 19 1 0 0
OW 0 38 73 193 125 22 7 1
VODI 0 78 112 247 336 44 28 30
ODI 0 11 61 234 473 179 94 16
CDI 0 0 10 234 848 2460 1175 33
VCDI 0 0 0 49 772 3287 11209 8850
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 105 119 243 33 0 0 2
OW 0 32 48 101 94 8 11 25
VODI 0 26 80 147 243 61 54 59
ODI 0 11 93 230 309 156 177 78
CDI 0 107 117 418 757 1115 989 130
VCDI 0 0 0 196 1137 4653 11282 8636

Date: 2014-05-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 216 273 387 63 12 1 0
OW 0 41 63 229 129 35 23 0
VODI 0 90 142 272 235 71 68 0
ODI 0 68 99 239 333 210 127 16
CDI 0 1 83 216 728 1869 1429 15
VCDI 0 0 0 78 931 4526 14625 4139
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 111 112 87 18 0 0 0
OW 0 14 48 108 43 13 0 4
VODI 0 38 68 180 137 133 111 37
ODI 0 61 118 269 187 192 272 50
CDI 0 186 274 505 789 1040 1272 95
VCDI 0 6 40 272 1245 5345 14618 3984


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