Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2014-05-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-05-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 49 83 120 9 3 0 0
OW 0 34 21 68 14 17 0 0
VODI 0 13 55 150 29 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 35 230 111 80 3 0
CDI 0 0 13 408 552 960 235 0
VCDI 0 0 0 214 987 5088 15258 21010
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-05-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 58 68 117 8 8 3 0
OW 0 39 26 38 26 18 1 0
VODI 0 15 71 147 22 7 3 0
ODI 0 0 88 214 126 53 1 0
CDI 0 0 41 434 583 878 261 0
VCDI 0 0 1 227 1166 3749 15335 22034
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-05-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 132 94 156 14 6 0 0
OW 0 13 107 192 29 9 0 0
VODI 0 0 53 245 45 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 11 183 154 49 3 0
CDI 0 0 6 322 831 1530 436 31
VCDI 0 0 0 84 817 2669 18760 18874
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-05-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 117 152 142 23 0 0 0
OW 0 1 107 210 53 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 30 186 87 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 12 144 174 94 29 1
CDI 0 0 2 311 808 1216 757 60
VCDI 0 0 0 170 887 3208 13695 23186
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 115 152 100 40 1 0 0
OW 0 3 97 164 42 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 41 277 83 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 11 150 154 90 20 4
CDI 0 0 2 299 766 1135 772 55
VCDI 0 0 0 173 947 3292 13689 23188

Date: 2014-05-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 119 200 234 36 0 0 0
OW 0 6 104 157 66 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 66 174 74 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 25 157 223 65 39 0
CDI 0 0 7 359 1116 1630 969 53
VCDI 0 0 0 189 935 3969 8765 26115
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 124 161 159 68 0 0 0
OW 0 1 151 175 45 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 61 230 70 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 22 178 202 68 41 0
CDI 0 0 7 331 1078 1495 1002 40
VCDI 0 0 0 197 987 4097 8730 26128

Date: 2014-05-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 179 265 282 23 0 0 0
OW 0 20 145 169 35 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 46 294 50 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 342 393 65 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 260 1752 2461 225 7
VCDI 0 0 0 118 813 4892 9268 23742
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 132 193 250 51 0 0 0
OW 0 48 94 170 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 19 73 168 51 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 76 193 152 97 13 3
CDI 0 0 34 447 1525 1878 678 70
VCDI 0 0 0 237 1266 5438 8802 23676

Date: 2014-05-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 188 419 214 15 0 0 0
OW 0 11 93 194 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 56 252 63 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 29 405 315 65 0 0
CDI 0 0 36 476 2319 1691 472 0
VCDI 0 0 5 195 954 4014 13966 19382
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 111 323 200 36 0 0 0
OW 0 43 69 170 15 2 0 0
VODI 0 37 73 174 80 13 0 0
ODI 0 14 100 195 192 78 2 0
CDI 0 0 73 700 1584 1053 632 33
VCDI 0 0 0 297 1790 4624 13804 19349

Date: 2014-05-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 145 442 210 11 0 0 0
OW 0 0 157 172 14 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 89 258 63 17 3 0
ODI 0 2 33 369 355 48 8 0
CDI 0 7 12 368 2034 3184 829 12
VCDI 0 20 57 280 701 2300 16628 17037
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 72 431 228 22 0 0 0
OW 0 28 71 194 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 36 79 129 68 29 0 0
ODI 0 20 110 189 184 67 13 0
CDI 0 18 99 649 1796 1540 871 13
VCDI 0 0 0 268 1077 3914 16584 17036


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