Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-05-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-05-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64045 18554 2694 1718 516 97 3 0
OW 57 92 239 539 430 51 13 0
VODI 0 14 113 538 710 216 57 16
ODI 0 0 94 628 923 620 274 74
CDI 0 0 55 701 2393 3718 1037 88
VCDI 0 0 1 446 2394 15067 31007 36816
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-05-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64049 18703 2708 1961 419 63 8 0
OW 54 87 171 659 454 33 23 0
VODI 0 17 158 734 980 92 92 50
ODI 0 17 169 594 1217 449 229 79
CDI 0 4 112 752 2537 3529 1428 118
VCDI 0 0 5 557 2676 13745 31677 35639
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-05-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63759 18949 2821 2361 472 22 1 0
OW 53 47 339 1089 473 34 7 0
VODI 0 4 146 884 1217 126 45 38
ODI 0 0 63 642 1997 593 122 50
CDI 0 0 8 511 2357 6121 1303 88
VCDI 0 0 0 257 1792 8217 37786 32254
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-05-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64547 18200 2999 2551 334 2 1 0
OW 52 33 305 1169 498 35 48 2
VODI 0 8 137 882 1195 263 87 18
ODI 0 0 85 705 1955 762 245 15
CDI 0 0 2 626 2863 5421 1977 82
VCDI 0 0 0 445 1903 8841 31432 36323
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64547 18204 3030 2641 361 5 6 0
OW 52 29 270 970 514 57 36 1
VODI 0 8 150 948 1183 353 96 15
ODI 0 0 75 734 1818 640 230 17
CDI 0 0 3 623 2897 5195 2005 82
VCDI 0 0 0 462 1975 9074 31417 36325

Date: 2014-05-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65667 17802 2936 2254 360 8 4 0
OW 55 79 289 1025 524 97 8 0
VODI 0 121 314 924 1252 499 36 0
ODI 0 24 157 660 1784 731 213 0
CDI 0 0 60 817 3383 6361 2293 53
VCDI 0 0 0 485 2532 11167 23623 38451
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65667 17825 2946 2317 427 15 7 0
OW 55 58 279 915 495 119 7 0
VODI 0 119 307 924 1243 515 50 0
ODI 0 24 157 704 1747 703 210 0
CDI 0 0 67 861 3371 5958 2297 40
VCDI 0 0 0 444 2552 11553 23606 38464

Date: 2014-05-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65552 18566 3362 2286 346 11 0 0
OW 50 120 354 1228 377 30 3 0
VODI 0 17 191 1323 1305 84 10 2
ODI 0 0 26 728 3207 502 61 18
CDI 0 0 1 424 4214 9649 1125 78
VCDI 0 0 0 249 1441 8932 25071 36105
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65549 18251 3011 2366 564 45 5 0
OW 53 207 322 817 642 143 43 24
VODI 0 162 227 897 1336 260 65 51
ODI 0 50 212 657 1589 608 221 82
CDI 0 33 162 1026 4029 5565 2408 176
VCDI 0 0 0 475 2730 12587 23528 35870

Date: 2014-05-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65976 18438 3531 2771 393 11 0 0
OW 44 67 232 1086 599 61 11 1
VODI 0 84 198 859 1789 242 43 30
ODI 0 11 90 809 2207 696 162 16
CDI 0 0 46 738 4565 7911 2253 33
VCDI 0 0 5 244 1726 8337 32227 28506
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65973 18136 3048 2442 700 69 4 2
OW 47 183 296 793 709 196 38 25
VODI 0 136 309 821 1265 364 99 59
ODI 0 38 256 628 1530 589 292 78
CDI 0 107 193 1330 4028 5405 2144 163
VCDI 0 0 0 493 3047 10635 32119 28259

Date: 2014-05-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66008 18830 3487 2854 458 20 3 0
OW 45 66 252 1128 910 65 30 0
VODI 0 92 260 878 1697 372 80 0
ODI 0 70 139 731 1737 722 154 16
CDI 0 8 95 624 4030 8625 2802 27
VCDI 0 20 57 358 1674 7665 38604 21355
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66007 18453 3057 2397 845 16 14 0
OW 46 211 336 926 740 196 18 4
VODI 0 131 256 738 1146 457 146 37
ODI 0 81 228 703 1209 805 340 50
CDI 0 204 373 1269 4097 5684 2728 108
VCDI 0 6 40 540 2469 10311 38427 21199


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