Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2014-05-15

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-05-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 1 36 23 0 0
OW 0 0 0 20 11 26 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 43 17 19 4 0
ODI 0 0 0 54 75 14 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 157 377 325 169 0
VCDI 0 0 0 139 948 4082 16935 22379
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-05-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 60 44 4 0 0
OW 0 0 0 26 24 22 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 77 53 59 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 98 114 79 18 0
CDI 0 0 0 354 485 410 207 0
VCDI 0 0 0 246 902 5304 17100 20178
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-05-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 16 43 94 14 1 0 0
OW 0 1 35 143 15 14 3 0
VODI 0 0 11 197 61 26 10 0
ODI 0 0 7 205 150 48 18 0
CDI 0 0 7 439 741 736 291 11
VCDI 0 0 0 167 614 3708 17095 20945
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-05-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 43 62 121 11 2 0 0
OW 0 16 35 94 11 16 2 0
VODI 0 0 34 180 58 11 8 0
ODI 0 0 19 234 152 83 11 0
CDI 0 0 9 441 612 899 194 0
VCDI 0 0 0 245 807 4171 16015 21270
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 45 66 141 16 3 0 0
OW 0 14 30 79 17 16 3 0
VODI 0 0 40 190 43 14 9 0
ODI 0 0 19 241 132 80 10 0
CDI 0 0 4 437 630 888 160 0
VCDI 0 0 0 227 813 4181 16048 21270

Date: 2014-05-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 49 86 130 9 5 0 0
OW 0 31 32 46 21 13 0 0
VODI 0 17 60 151 25 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 48 230 150 42 0 0
CDI 0 0 17 394 742 836 226 0
VCDI 0 0 0 231 1127 3999 15109 22026
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 53 91 146 13 7 0 0
OW 0 27 27 73 23 17 0 0
VODI 0 17 65 125 27 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 54 223 129 58 2 0
CDI 0 0 6 393 702 758 204 0
VCDI 0 0 0 222 1180 4060 15129 22026

Date: 2014-05-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 79 87 124 12 6 0 0
OW 0 37 128 127 25 11 0 0
VODI 0 0 41 346 50 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 16 192 224 54 2 0
CDI 0 0 6 256 853 1694 182 1
VCDI 0 0 0 66 833 2970 17202 20232
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 58 88 133 26 16 0 0
OW 0 32 21 56 22 17 0 0
VODI 0 23 60 147 26 14 0 0
ODI 0 3 70 208 92 107 39 0
CDI 0 0 39 349 634 955 232 0
VCDI 0 0 0 218 1197 3636 17115 20233

Date: 2014-05-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 135 125 133 10 2 0 0
OW 0 3 111 201 37 9 0 0
VODI 0 0 35 198 79 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 9 142 188 56 3 2
CDI 0 0 5 336 788 1304 691 72
VCDI 0 0 0 156 847 2706 15759 21717
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 34 111 96 29 8 0 0
OW 0 40 22 34 41 6 0 0
VODI 0 47 43 171 30 22 0 0
ODI 0 17 64 188 109 95 19 8
CDI 0 0 45 363 713 716 340 63
VCDI 0 0 0 314 1027 3237 16094 21720

Date: 2014-05-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 113 174 174 30 0 0 0
OW 0 1 111 192 58 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 49 171 86 21 1 0
ODI 0 0 12 159 219 81 52 0
CDI 0 0 2 347 961 1299 1029 11
VCDI 0 0 0 158 916 4275 10077 25086
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 22 98 95 50 0 0 0
OW 0 32 32 38 55 6 0 0
VODI 0 43 54 188 33 39 0 0
ODI 0 17 83 208 98 75 26 0
CDI 0 0 81 429 852 952 640 5
VCDI 0 0 0 243 1182 4605 10493 25092


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