Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2014-05-08

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-05-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62879 17531 2568 1684 584 115 2 0
OW 50 67 320 503 405 120 18 0
VODI 0 17 113 559 383 300 31 0
ODI 0 3 34 239 464 394 45 0
CDI 0 0 20 199 873 1983 371 0
VCDI 0 0 0 51 320 3728 6978 5149
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-05-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63062 17640 2463 1707 649 125 16 0
OW 50 71 344 463 363 152 33 0
VODI 0 16 133 488 401 288 45 0
ODI 0 3 28 292 420 407 101 0
CDI 0 0 29 217 1081 916 178 0
VCDI 0 0 10 73 451 4364 6554 5467
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-05-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63550 17727 2852 1489 529 165 4 0
OW 61 25 156 655 237 87 11 0
VODI 0 8 49 514 655 163 19 0
ODI 0 1 2 212 749 323 40 0
CDI 0 0 0 78 931 1962 450 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 127 3759 6219 5291
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-05-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64449 17571 2429 1339 554 81 3 0
OW 60 41 326 614 316 62 10 0
VODI 0 3 65 502 585 186 13 0
ODI 0 0 11 253 588 378 61 0
CDI 0 0 16 95 929 1999 527 0
VCDI 0 0 0 47 300 3933 6038 4716
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64449 17561 2455 1398 592 82 3 0
OW 60 48 287 550 314 58 9 0
VODI 0 6 73 496 563 195 14 0
ODI 0 0 15 266 579 379 63 0
CDI 0 0 17 72 917 2060 496 0
VCDI 0 0 0 68 307 3865 6067 4716

Date: 2014-05-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54909 15130 7099 9397 289 0 0 0
OW 60 7 98 1027 138 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 18 1050 176 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1047 126 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2961 396 116 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10101 1340 2077 1493 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54909 15126 7120 9490 316 0 0 0
OW 60 11 75 939 148 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 20 1014 132 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1055 131 25 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2849 389 173 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10236 1349 2024 1491 0

Date: 2014-05-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64241 18312 2583 1422 370 82 16 0
OW 61 17 211 589 268 30 5 0
VODI 0 1 22 511 619 65 30 0
ODI 0 0 18 188 743 209 33 0
CDI 0 0 8 124 1094 2854 314 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 56 3023 5904 5077
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64240 18280 2439 1542 483 108 23 0
OW 62 46 215 333 364 50 33 0
VODI 0 3 117 347 472 156 80 0
ODI 0 0 18 283 414 242 180 0
CDI 0 0 27 246 933 2052 282 0
VCDI 0 1 26 83 484 3655 5704 5077

Date: 2014-05-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64556 18154 2777 1408 335 86 5 0
OW 59 14 104 566 311 32 5 0
VODI 0 0 31 462 550 66 28 0
ODI 0 0 8 227 594 255 84 0
CDI 0 0 1 202 1436 2669 389 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 93 3083 5032 5474
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64552 18085 2496 1446 391 110 16 0
OW 63 78 208 334 339 42 33 0
VODI 0 5 161 332 458 125 127 0
ODI 0 0 39 284 423 244 162 0
CDI 0 0 8 335 1163 2163 423 0
VCDI 0 0 9 138 545 3507 4782 5474

Date: 2014-05-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64045 18419 2557 1596 507 94 3 0
OW 57 52 149 451 413 34 13 0
VODI 0 1 40 321 570 177 35 0
ODI 0 0 57 300 623 456 183 0
CDI 0 0 42 203 1503 2384 509 0
VCDI 0 0 1 95 287 2667 4934 5322
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64043 18335 2398 1643 616 122 26 0
OW 59 105 155 298 425 40 38 0
VODI 0 32 135 230 521 280 112 0
ODI 0 0 52 267 517 405 173 0
CDI 0 0 19 332 1398 2153 493 0
VCDI 0 0 87 196 426 2812 4835 5322


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