Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2014-05-08

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-05-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 12 56 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 35 33 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 78 56 60 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 120 206 432 136 0
VCDI 0 0 0 92 978 6215 21171 16169
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-05-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 3 20 7 0 0
OW 0 0 0 13 16 37 2 0
VODI 0 0 0 43 31 14 11 0
ODI 0 0 0 72 96 43 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 102 228 444 325 0
VCDI 0 0 0 50 792 4656 18756 20098
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-05-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 9 14 6 0 0
OW 0 0 0 40 11 27 0 0
VODI 0 0 9 65 32 18 1 0
ODI 0 0 5 53 104 21 8 0
CDI 0 0 1 78 357 390 118 12
VCDI 0 0 0 48 949 4370 17054 22066
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-05-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 4 20 25 0 0
OW 0 0 0 27 6 30 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 54 19 16 7 0
ODI 0 0 0 48 83 16 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 129 395 286 128 11
VCDI 0 0 0 122 945 3616 16738 23129
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 6 23 32 0 0
OW 0 0 0 34 4 26 2 0
VODI 0 0 0 43 12 14 6 0
ODI 0 0 0 47 82 13 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 146 389 282 136 8
VCDI 0 0 0 108 958 3622 16731 23132

Date: 2014-05-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 45 35 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 13 43 5 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 25 57 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 46 118 59 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 231 516 364 167 0
VCDI 0 0 0 370 2239 5283 17012 19216
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 46 45 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 12 38 8 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 22 40 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 52 106 56 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 226 483 357 178 0
VCDI 0 0 0 372 2296 5293 17001 19216

Date: 2014-05-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 22 73 5 0 0 0
OW 0 0 35 98 41 11 0 0
VODI 0 0 12 204 81 34 8 0
ODI 0 0 8 192 174 69 11 0
CDI 0 0 15 363 763 804 180 0
VCDI 0 0 0 60 661 4385 20855 16702
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 23 82 36 14 3 0
OW 0 0 9 16 17 17 11 0
VODI 0 0 18 65 52 41 15 0
ODI 0 0 9 144 82 71 20 0
CDI 0 0 26 458 544 453 223 0
VCDI 0 0 7 225 994 4707 20782 16702

Date: 2014-05-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 33 59 100 11 1 0 0
OW 0 3 28 119 16 9 6 0
VODI 0 0 18 231 66 9 10 0
ODI 0 0 14 217 175 23 12 0
CDI 0 0 15 436 903 664 208 0
VCDI 0 0 0 194 736 4574 15833 21143
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 15 42 90 18 8 13 0
OW 0 7 10 49 11 10 11 0
VODI 0 11 23 99 57 8 15 0
ODI 0 3 21 130 96 27 9 0
CDI 0 0 33 535 684 444 212 0
VCDI 0 0 5 394 1041 4783 15809 21143

Date: 2014-05-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 49 83 120 9 3 0 0
OW 0 34 21 68 14 17 0 0
VODI 0 13 55 150 29 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 35 230 111 80 3 0
CDI 0 0 13 408 552 960 235 0
VCDI 0 0 0 214 987 5088 15258 21010
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 15 50 103 11 19 0 0
OW 0 10 15 45 13 15 1 0
VODI 0 27 25 53 25 19 1 0
ODI 0 32 26 70 34 156 3 0
CDI 0 12 90 479 386 777 205 0
VCDI 0 0 1 440 1233 5179 15286 21010


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