Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-05-08

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-05-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62879 17531 2568 1691 584 115 2 0
OW 50 67 324 560 461 121 18 0
VODI 0 17 128 705 425 314 31 0
ODI 0 3 34 381 557 476 46 0
CDI 0 0 20 382 1199 2572 599 5
VCDI 0 0 0 145 1589 13476 40095 36878
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-05-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63062 17640 2463 1714 669 132 16 0
OW 50 71 346 530 379 189 35 0
VODI 0 16 154 619 442 302 56 0
ODI 0 3 28 412 566 458 121 10
CDI 0 0 29 344 1401 1479 692 101
VCDI 0 0 10 123 1638 12426 40240 38082
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-05-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63550 17728 2876 1507 543 171 4 0
OW 61 25 163 773 256 114 11 0
VODI 0 8 58 639 729 183 20 0
ODI 0 1 7 283 925 363 48 0
CDI 0 0 1 163 1394 2494 711 57
VCDI 0 0 0 48 1202 10382 36895 42655
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-05-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64449 17571 2429 1343 574 106 3 0
OW 60 41 339 728 322 92 10 0
VODI 0 3 65 654 617 202 20 0
ODI 0 0 11 383 769 399 73 0
CDI 0 0 16 249 1495 2419 728 84
VCDI 0 0 0 170 1376 10209 34387 44652
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64449 17561 2456 1411 615 114 3 0
OW 60 48 298 669 318 84 11 0
VODI 0 6 74 633 596 209 20 0
ODI 0 0 15 390 747 399 73 0
CDI 0 0 17 247 1471 2476 739 88
VCDI 0 0 0 177 1406 10145 34375 44648

Date: 2014-05-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54909 15130 7099 9458 324 0 0 0
OW 60 7 105 1120 212 7 0 0
VODI 0 0 18 1134 287 36 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1154 323 122 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 3276 1168 698 308 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10718 4926 11283 32828 30323
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54909 15126 7126 9589 365 0 0 0
OW 60 11 76 993 221 8 0 0
VODI 0 0 20 1100 232 33 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1166 313 108 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 3157 1142 751 311 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10855 4967 11246 32826 30323

Date: 2014-05-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64241 18335 2653 1524 375 82 16 0
OW 61 17 259 797 309 41 5 0
VODI 0 1 34 839 731 99 38 0
ODI 0 0 26 442 1025 312 46 0
CDI 0 0 23 508 2105 4141 577 0
VCDI 0 0 0 67 1078 10666 39518 36057
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64240 18298 2475 1643 519 122 26 0
OW 62 51 251 386 381 67 44 0
VODI 0 3 156 487 543 201 95 0
ODI 0 0 27 498 541 345 201 0
CDI 0 0 53 813 1691 2774 609 12
VCDI 0 1 33 350 1948 11832 39225 36045

Date: 2014-05-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64556 18227 2909 1569 346 87 5 0
OW 59 17 145 751 327 41 11 0
VODI 0 0 49 802 635 77 38 0
ODI 0 0 22 490 857 347 116 0
CDI 0 0 16 662 2536 3874 785 72
VCDI 0 0 0 212 1194 12012 33959 39243
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64552 18126 2556 1547 409 118 29 0
OW 63 98 241 410 350 53 44 0
VODI 0 17 212 495 538 153 144 0
ODI 0 3 77 463 573 331 185 0
CDI 0 0 41 960 2052 3063 822 42
VCDI 0 0 14 611 1973 12720 33690 39273

Date: 2014-05-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64045 18554 2694 1718 516 97 3 0
OW 57 92 239 539 430 51 13 0
VODI 0 14 113 538 710 216 57 16
ODI 0 0 94 628 923 620 274 74
CDI 0 0 55 701 2393 3718 1037 88
VCDI 0 0 1 446 2394 15067 31007 36816
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64043 18412 2463 1746 627 141 26 0
OW 59 141 205 348 441 55 39 0
VODI 0 63 224 303 597 311 124 20
ODI 0 32 106 397 667 606 258 67
CDI 0 12 110 948 2136 3254 952 69
VCDI 0 0 88 828 2898 15402 30992 36838


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