Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-05-01

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-04-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61969 17457 2598 2121 638 265 20 0
OW 51 36 309 705 527 238 34 0
VODI 0 14 52 463 728 450 65 13
ODI 0 7 19 186 487 664 139 19
CDI 0 0 13 232 1017 1604 672 60
VCDI 0 0 0 104 1209 9184 36824 45855
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-04-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61733 17772 2637 2208 919 212 46 0
OW 51 51 285 545 524 228 53 0
VODI 0 25 116 504 397 426 98 0
ODI 0 17 34 258 411 505 101 0
CDI 0 5 38 256 685 1417 427 92
VCDI 0 0 0 83 1088 9273 36459 47069
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-04-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62309 17707 2381 1878 661 69 12 0
OW 51 59 356 732 450 112 45 0
VODI 0 26 64 598 407 242 52 0
ODI 0 1 50 226 597 520 75 0
CDI 0 0 8 240 897 2230 546 22
VCDI 0 0 0 87 1257 9772 38982 43327
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-05-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62834 17452 2538 1727 575 64 11 0
OW 50 54 279 662 454 86 26 0
VODI 0 17 99 652 507 245 44 0
ODI 0 0 34 298 572 500 68 0
CDI 0 0 6 277 995 2693 626 16
VCDI 0 0 0 98 1521 11917 38627 40424
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62834 17466 2618 1822 590 59 10 0
OW 50 40 203 610 400 72 23 0
VODI 0 17 90 599 586 271 44 0
ODI 0 0 34 325 509 494 55 0
CDI 0 0 11 276 1016 2789 699 17
VCDI 0 0 0 82 1523 11820 38571 40423

Date: 2014-05-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62868 17582 2501 1806 667 125 9 0
OW 50 79 314 570 427 140 21 0
VODI 0 26 124 625 457 304 47 0
ODI 0 9 33 422 469 531 77 0
CDI 0 0 26 320 1310 2202 491 50
VCDI 0 0 1 96 1342 12785 38735 39407
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62868 17623 2558 1821 647 127 11 0
OW 50 42 306 545 394 113 20 0
VODI 0 22 76 603 491 319 43 0
ODI 0 9 27 470 442 569 71 0
CDI 0 0 32 314 1289 2040 554 63
VCDI 0 0 0 86 1409 12919 38681 39394

Date: 2014-05-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63281 17723 2740 1508 451 145 5 0
OW 49 41 259 834 289 77 12 0
VODI 0 3 57 800 665 149 21 0
ODI 0 0 16 321 1139 340 36 0
CDI 0 0 4 149 1501 3176 629 18
VCDI 0 0 0 51 1191 10465 38717 40186
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63280 17667 2544 1686 634 195 22 0
OW 50 61 319 479 419 149 25 0
VODI 0 23 132 551 549 244 51 0
ODI 0 15 33 436 466 415 148 0
CDI 0 1 38 380 1340 1221 974 35
VCDI 0 0 10 131 1828 12128 38200 40169

Date: 2014-05-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63814 17851 2639 1386 553 171 19 0
OW 61 28 271 747 271 129 3 0
VODI 0 6 57 659 667 208 14 0
ODI 0 0 7 302 829 435 56 0
CDI 0 0 5 180 1400 2385 552 17
VCDI 0 0 0 90 1259 10714 35375 43888
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63814 17704 2434 1449 717 316 25 0
OW 61 115 292 450 404 168 24 0
VODI 0 40 137 531 491 326 65 0
ODI 0 17 50 327 423 414 95 0
CDI 0 9 47 353 1076 1390 804 54
VCDI 0 0 19 254 1868 11428 35006 43851

Date: 2014-05-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60962 16999 3024 5155 394 129 6 0
OW 60 30 308 822 258 68 11 0
VODI 0 4 66 752 508 143 34 0
ODI 0 4 16 578 597 239 151 0
CDI 0 0 29 635 1432 2170 993 2
VCDI 0 0 2 425 1774 11418 36756 40094
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60962 16932 2825 5268 580 199 44 0
OW 60 48 306 651 306 123 40 0
VODI 0 30 157 635 324 160 106 0
ODI 0 16 81 486 466 267 138 0
CDI 0 8 41 949 1275 1434 591 7
VCDI 0 3 35 378 2012 11984 37032 40089


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