Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-04-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-04-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59987 18749 2909 1958 746 64 0 0
OW 51 91 411 810 375 112 3 0
VODI 0 50 164 741 751 265 9 0
ODI 0 29 68 363 847 534 35 0
CDI 0 7 64 267 886 1083 174 54
VCDI 0 0 54 505 2736 11466 32154 47476
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-04-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61351 17499 2448 1872 767 152 0 0
OW 51 185 360 873 452 172 5 0
VODI 0 57 238 706 717 398 18 0
ODI 0 24 98 282 725 586 87 67
CDI 0 22 56 200 994 1435 357 75
VCDI 0 0 42 343 2693 9631 34743 46267
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-04-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60347 18497 3281 1920 569 70 0 0
OW 51 26 236 884 643 96 0 0
VODI 0 19 81 549 1062 307 0 0
ODI 0 5 35 216 722 734 59 26
CDI 0 0 19 319 1332 1993 464 46
VCDI 0 0 0 84 1659 9657 34788 46252
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-04-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62034 17377 2650 2051 571 213 2 0
OW 51 24 282 778 539 220 29 0
VODI 0 14 65 451 887 400 62 0
ODI 0 4 20 208 516 680 152 0
CDI 0 0 11 266 1068 1679 626 30
VCDI 0 0 0 57 1510 9108 36461 45952
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62034 17374 2727 2244 666 227 4 0
OW 51 27 217 602 567 222 22 0
VODI 0 14 53 436 749 438 75 0
ODI 0 4 22 215 528 644 151 0
CDI 0 0 9 259 1090 1788 642 40
VCDI 0 0 0 55 1491 8981 36438 45942

Date: 2014-04-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61537 18028 2555 2188 726 257 46 0
OW 51 45 345 533 578 205 54 0
VODI 0 17 116 486 553 452 85 0
ODI 0 10 21 260 400 548 137 18
CDI 0 1 15 283 844 1529 502 52
VCDI 0 0 0 80 1113 9495 36521 46362
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61538 18040 2679 2361 927 287 43 0
OW 50 34 232 434 502 227 50 0
VODI 0 18 110 429 436 493 89 8
ODI 0 9 19 261 383 514 149 20
CDI 0 0 12 276 894 1504 593 49
VCDI 0 0 0 69 1072 9461 36421 46355

Date: 2014-04-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61570 17699 2918 1945 586 131 10 0
OW 51 40 336 906 505 100 26 0
VODI 0 10 47 599 528 218 40 0
ODI 0 0 14 197 715 545 41 0
CDI 0 0 0 91 909 3159 482 23
VCDI 0 0 0 45 896 9167 37263 45236
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61571 17655 2924 2471 1153 248 47 0
OW 50 54 235 357 379 279 60 0
VODI 0 24 107 420 290 453 101 0
ODI 0 15 29 224 380 520 127 1
CDI 0 1 20 235 699 1828 672 34
VCDI 0 0 0 76 1238 9992 36855 45224

Date: 2014-04-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61703 18230 2576 1868 545 55 9 0
OW 51 58 278 779 443 107 32 0
VODI 0 23 70 541 504 257 43 0
ODI 0 0 51 231 568 575 82 0
CDI 0 0 8 257 930 2296 732 15
VCDI 0 0 0 76 1389 10219 38751 42696
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61704 18163 2554 2317 990 198 53 0
OW 50 99 201 345 361 236 59 0
VODI 0 38 149 390 344 465 133 0
ODI 0 11 41 256 375 497 176 0
CDI 0 0 38 311 824 1675 718 26
VCDI 0 0 0 133 1485 10438 38510 42685

Date: 2014-05-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62879 17531 2568 1691 584 115 2 0
OW 50 67 324 560 461 121 18 0
VODI 0 17 128 705 425 314 31 0
ODI 0 3 34 381 557 476 46 0
CDI 0 0 20 382 1199 2572 599 5
VCDI 0 0 0 145 1589 13476 40095 36878
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62879 17438 2587 2000 994 274 49 0
OW 50 105 203 407 355 219 35 0
VODI 0 61 159 485 364 433 78 0
ODI 0 14 74 263 353 365 131 4
CDI 0 0 47 497 998 1714 751 75
VCDI 0 0 4 212 1751 14069 39747 36804


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