Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2014-04-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-04-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58675 20762 2550 1596 597 127 4 0
OW 52 154 300 471 455 108 4 0
VODI 0 66 188 415 574 388 64 0
ODI 0 16 77 294 470 732 82 0
CDI 0 2 51 201 390 833 114 0
VCDI 0 0 15 184 708 4320 7917 5144
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-04-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58528 20317 2511 1822 826 139 6 0
OW 52 133 299 431 575 117 24 0
VODI 0 61 202 350 590 636 47 0
ODI 0 22 59 283 315 556 101 0
CDI 0 3 64 204 442 868 133 0
VCDI 0 0 12 234 588 4180 7699 5671
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-04-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59672 18787 2819 1690 694 108 0 0
OW 52 21 253 796 340 104 0 0
VODI 0 11 57 676 605 204 1 0
ODI 0 0 14 266 913 599 14 0
CDI 0 0 3 158 628 1321 97 0
VCDI 0 0 0 30 355 4397 8863 4552
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-04-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60790 18423 2654 1589 569 75 0 0
OW 52 159 380 865 251 86 1 0
VODI 0 49 150 825 628 188 10 0
ODI 0 21 47 382 812 422 18 0
CDI 0 6 61 221 573 594 53 0
VCDI 0 0 17 257 1130 5334 6993 4415
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60790 18540 2870 2304 815 156 0 0
OW 52 59 194 477 249 114 2 0
VODI 0 37 114 494 354 168 11 0
ODI 0 15 46 316 523 195 17 0
CDI 0 7 53 230 730 493 39 0
VCDI 0 0 32 318 1292 5573 7006 4415

Date: 2014-04-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59992 18697 2608 2108 806 90 0 0
OW 51 84 321 775 476 128 4 0
VODI 0 42 154 627 817 287 12 0
ODI 0 21 53 235 659 524 20 0
CDI 0 18 27 131 548 863 69 0
VCDI 0 9 53 196 1311 5299 6996 3989
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59992 18759 2800 2888 1241 256 4 0
OW 51 40 162 315 269 126 7 0
VODI 0 32 127 303 468 180 10 0
ODI 0 14 47 161 553 288 12 0
CDI 0 14 26 161 601 831 84 0
VCDI 0 12 54 244 1485 5510 6984 3989

Date: 2014-04-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59794 19171 2899 1597 553 132 0 0
OW 51 40 250 1049 326 100 0 0
VODI 0 33 53 786 903 235 0 0
ODI 0 19 31 126 789 627 10 0
CDI 0 1 36 204 788 1834 185 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 540 4350 8066 3520
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59794 19109 2807 2611 1124 475 1 0
OW 51 63 167 280 280 173 13 0
VODI 0 33 158 248 381 237 19 0
ODI 0 22 49 224 502 320 32 0
CDI 0 19 30 199 399 1042 154 0
VCDI 0 18 58 202 1213 5031 8042 3520

Date: 2014-04-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61445 17725 2736 2129 543 102 4 0
OW 51 24 194 832 609 155 10 0
VODI 0 17 32 400 860 355 38 0
ODI 0 9 21 143 437 676 71 0
CDI 0 0 19 241 831 1358 218 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 527 4376 7278 4634
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61445 17715 2652 2528 1369 507 51 0
OW 51 29 167 230 243 152 25 0
VODI 0 15 113 288 291 308 44 0
ODI 0 11 27 257 272 316 70 0
CDI 0 5 42 279 544 1107 200 0
VCDI 0 0 1 163 1088 4632 7229 4634

Date: 2014-04-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61969 17457 2579 2085 638 265 20 0
OW 51 36 306 654 525 238 34 0
VODI 0 14 52 354 672 429 59 0
ODI 0 7 19 135 327 595 116 0
CDI 0 0 13 200 629 1120 255 0
VCDI 0 0 0 25 376 3936 8013 4897
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61969 17460 2631 2507 1302 835 79 0
OW 51 34 144 204 213 194 55 0
VODI 0 12 121 209 282 281 74 0
ODI 0 7 36 168 203 333 75 0
CDI 0 1 37 244 519 805 175 0
VCDI 0 0 0 121 648 4135 8039 4897


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