Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-04-10

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-04-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59544 18465 3267 1491 635 60 0 0
OW 52 110 318 556 370 98 1 0
VODI 0 31 194 550 563 318 23 0
ODI 0 21 48 310 584 702 56 0
CDI 0 2 40 286 834 1798 248 55
VCDI 0 0 0 117 1038 8869 33386 52008
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-04-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61694 17519 2279 1222 628 117 0 0
OW 52 98 359 571 310 157 0 0
VODI 0 41 231 553 450 392 12 0
ODI 0 4 81 413 545 682 63 0
CDI 0 0 32 306 771 1208 383 13
VCDI 0 0 6 155 975 7655 31907 55164
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-04-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62173 17646 2264 1280 477 256 16 0
OW 52 80 293 652 355 153 13 0
VODI 0 22 151 497 533 374 26 0
ODI 0 1 36 307 693 691 89 0
CDI 0 0 0 208 554 1103 465 13
VCDI 0 0 0 70 707 7512 29050 58236
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-04-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59880 19408 2715 1577 522 176 24 0
OW 52 136 249 618 482 88 29 0
VODI 0 60 142 439 626 333 111 0
ODI 0 14 62 324 427 760 187 0
CDI 0 0 56 196 482 929 282 77
VCDI 0 0 5 168 1011 8218 32026 54157
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59880 19507 2821 1930 812 271 52 0
OW 52 49 181 330 339 120 47 0
VODI 0 46 102 362 379 227 92 0
ODI 0 16 58 275 435 403 115 0
CDI 0 0 56 216 504 1080 299 83
VCDI 0 0 11 209 1081 8403 32054 54151

Date: 2014-04-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61267 18152 2361 1816 637 114 1 0
OW 52 128 307 451 560 97 14 0
VODI 0 61 212 411 640 502 82 0
ODI 0 18 69 325 417 629 187 67
CDI 0 0 58 262 540 1043 392 111
VCDI 0 0 7 333 1219 9426 34757 49323
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61267 18269 2568 2106 1057 232 20 0
OW 52 37 176 250 325 112 14 0
VODI 0 39 141 317 371 249 71 17
ODI 0 14 62 266 342 452 176 61
CDI 0 0 48 248 600 1197 406 97
VCDI 0 0 19 411 1318 9569 34746 49326

Date: 2014-04-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58907 19467 3098 1578 711 80 0 0
OW 52 48 346 760 366 72 0 0
VODI 0 7 77 635 629 195 11 0
ODI 0 0 16 246 747 724 69 0
CDI 0 0 1 180 519 2084 482 33
VCDI 0 0 0 74 852 7154 34990 51838
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58907 19418 3074 2094 1348 348 17 0
OW 52 50 196 234 288 212 24 0
VODI 0 33 149 287 302 316 50 0
ODI 0 20 67 263 261 554 145 5
CDI 0 1 42 286 512 1310 541 105
VCDI 0 0 10 309 1113 7569 34775 51761

Date: 2014-04-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58488 19790 3161 1653 595 156 0 0
OW 52 104 384 815 227 168 0 0
VODI 0 83 150 904 447 233 6 0
ODI 0 44 37 452 871 462 93 0
CDI 0 19 33 193 692 1037 365 34
VCDI 0 0 14 172 1141 8384 35618 49971
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58488 19812 3213 2481 972 490 19 0
OW 52 72 220 285 204 147 17 0
VODI 0 61 190 376 305 190 49 0
ODI 0 53 86 331 438 266 89 0
CDI 0 42 47 396 661 844 301 16
VCDI 0 0 23 320 1393 8503 35607 49989

Date: 2014-04-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59987 18749 2909 1958 746 64 0 0
OW 51 91 411 810 375 112 3 0
VODI 0 50 164 741 751 265 9 0
ODI 0 29 68 363 847 534 35 0
CDI 0 7 64 267 886 1083 174 54
VCDI 0 0 54 505 2736 11466 32154 47476
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59986 18714 2783 2497 1357 383 24 0
OW 52 79 242 210 242 125 14 0
VODI 0 39 255 275 337 225 30 0
ODI 0 24 121 282 416 295 35 0
CDI 0 20 84 400 817 936 134 65
VCDI 0 50 185 980 3172 11560 32138 47465


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