Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-04-03

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-03-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59410 20308 2364 1047 359 50 6 0
OW 53 188 477 514 240 48 20 0
VODI 0 100 376 707 435 173 40 0
ODI 0 51 137 386 555 456 63 0
CDI 0 27 138 287 705 791 220 25
VCDI 0 0 10 300 1244 7657 30119 56962
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-03-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59506 19769 2524 1267 498 58 3 0
OW 52 144 491 530 311 107 14 0
VODI 0 84 293 528 556 312 27 0
ODI 0 57 82 323 553 491 118 0
CDI 0 44 119 305 613 1289 508 30
VCDI 0 0 70 486 1802 8257 32542 52285
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-04-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61540 17541 2649 1385 459 53 0 0
OW 52 113 384 678 321 88 2 0
VODI 0 40 163 568 597 225 6 0
ODI 0 17 73 260 711 611 87 0
CDI 0 0 19 248 796 2073 462 2
VCDI 0 0 0 212 1481 9303 32068 51761
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-04-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61839 17429 2191 1453 467 169 0 0
OW 52 110 364 575 307 116 6 0
VODI 0 42 161 579 548 316 30 0
ODI 0 18 42 303 595 646 104 1
CDI 0 0 40 239 787 2061 223 13
VCDI 0 0 4 110 1151 9944 33724 50289
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61838 17521 2415 1749 646 277 0 0
OW 53 39 194 398 262 128 9 0
VODI 0 24 114 448 374 233 24 0
ODI 0 15 39 309 474 348 62 1
CDI 0 0 33 242 845 1935 204 13
VCDI 0 0 7 113 1254 10331 33788 50289

Date: 2014-04-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61154 17927 2287 1357 657 72 0 0
OW 52 65 334 628 323 118 1 0
VODI 0 27 180 626 482 344 23 0
ODI 0 5 54 367 590 638 73 0
CDI 0 0 23 285 757 1453 370 81
VCDI 0 0 0 155 999 8453 32358 53730
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61153 17988 2513 1750 915 162 0 0
OW 53 19 201 367 240 170 1 0
VODI 0 14 107 474 314 271 17 0
ODI 0 3 35 345 382 350 55 0
CDI 0 0 18 319 912 1315 365 85
VCDI 0 0 4 163 1045 8810 32387 53726

Date: 2014-04-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61177 18549 2424 991 480 120 0 0
OW 52 74 445 832 289 108 2 0
VODI 0 6 95 705 622 248 8 0
ODI 0 0 22 339 773 666 53 0
CDI 0 0 0 154 676 1336 253 39
VCDI 0 0 0 40 732 7218 31631 55889
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61177 18466 2429 1547 863 319 17 0
OW 52 71 228 272 204 160 31 0
VODI 0 66 143 335 297 256 57 0
ODI 0 26 103 314 329 308 62 0
CDI 0 0 77 403 791 835 313 11
VCDI 0 0 6 190 1088 7818 31467 55917

Date: 2014-04-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60888 18593 2417 1343 545 327 15 0
OW 52 71 289 624 412 169 11 0
VODI 0 15 149 486 546 432 47 0
ODI 0 0 51 293 538 844 103 0
CDI 0 0 5 202 502 1241 326 32
VCDI 0 0 0 82 674 7338 32456 54930
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60888 18468 2331 1632 901 635 61 0
OW 52 109 180 246 215 194 55 0
VODI 0 61 151 307 237 287 76 0
ODI 0 23 129 262 319 459 95 0
CDI 0 18 87 355 685 1294 385 7
VCDI 0 0 33 228 860 7482 32286 54955

Date: 2014-04-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58675 20762 2602 1607 597 127 4 0
OW 52 154 322 488 455 108 4 0
VODI 0 66 210 461 576 388 64 0
ODI 0 16 80 333 493 737 98 30
CDI 0 2 51 255 489 965 283 116
VCDI 0 0 15 280 1285 8738 34343 50717
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58675 20685 2592 1755 968 418 61 0
OW 52 134 185 198 220 138 57 0
VODI 0 98 181 325 238 227 83 0
ODI 0 52 136 341 330 459 101 0
CDI 0 31 127 405 680 1214 370 2
VCDI 0 0 59 400 1459 8607 34124 50861


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