Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-03-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-03-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56661 22350 2982 1064 352 87 0 0
OW 53 250 511 547 175 107 0 0
VODI 0 136 273 712 304 207 7 0
ODI 0 129 85 510 314 403 59 0
CDI 0 72 125 548 662 692 279 21
VCDI 0 1 81 448 2259 8840 32872 51870
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-03-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59378 19900 2202 1098 411 122 0 0
OW 53 192 492 505 163 153 3 0
VODI 0 128 349 542 293 278 44 0
ODI 0 48 155 474 389 431 83 0
CDI 0 19 114 371 629 997 395 11
VCDI 0 4 186 810 2121 7873 34159 51473
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-03-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57602 21975 2725 1174 215 12 0 0
OW 53 185 397 715 200 41 0 0
VODI 0 66 254 744 467 173 1 0
ODI 0 6 72 448 690 424 24 0
CDI 0 0 65 220 1108 1083 261 30
VCDI 0 0 11 351 1959 7700 35072 50525
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-03-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59988 19696 2418 1209 349 18 0 0
OW 53 177 328 572 253 87 0 0
VODI 0 154 240 627 449 188 15 0
ODI 0 24 88 379 560 497 38 0
CDI 0 4 56 245 904 1282 359 2
VCDI 0 0 36 300 1411 7223 34279 52540
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59988 19806 2619 1521 475 102 0 0
OW 53 117 189 444 233 91 0 0
VODI 0 115 180 445 381 179 16 0
ODI 0 14 81 332 382 271 27 0
CDI 0 3 60 273 841 1010 322 3
VCDI 0 0 37 317 1614 7642 34326 52539

Date: 2014-03-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57330 21476 2814 1277 287 72 0 0
OW 53 157 406 446 272 119 4 0
VODI 0 167 205 608 356 246 32 0
ODI 0 159 100 395 468 501 87 0
CDI 0 40 105 219 780 1381 407 22
VCDI 0 0 91 389 1399 7743 34463 51972
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57330 21576 3058 1474 438 173 5 0
OW 53 106 245 370 220 108 13 0
VODI 0 126 148 472 297 207 35 0
ODI 0 120 78 341 290 269 81 0
CDI 0 71 88 229 698 1011 316 25
VCDI 0 0 104 448 1619 8294 34543 51969

Date: 2014-03-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56865 22620 2490 1134 199 70 0 0
OW 52 300 336 704 239 57 0 0
VODI 0 99 214 751 484 220 11 0
ODI 0 0 63 318 711 571 56 0
CDI 0 0 29 213 777 1799 295 24
VCDI 0 0 5 140 1090 6898 35319 51895
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56864 22665 2453 1390 452 263 17 0
OW 53 140 198 375 171 96 11 0
VODI 0 101 190 441 256 193 20 0
ODI 0 55 95 328 306 326 71 0
CDI 0 49 89 302 708 999 341 28
VCDI 0 9 112 424 1607 7738 35221 51891

Date: 2014-03-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57395 21623 2819 1151 302 52 0 0
OW 53 236 358 522 247 74 1 0
VODI 0 153 254 572 502 222 34 0
ODI 0 40 139 286 538 547 80 0
CDI 0 8 84 243 645 1299 322 59
VCDI 0 1 41 200 1080 7074 33046 54746
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57394 21700 2792 1330 551 241 4 0
OW 54 152 272 317 187 79 12 0
VODI 0 96 250 318 341 163 37 0
ODI 0 49 138 298 299 253 88 1
CDI 0 41 94 317 646 1268 565 49
VCDI 0 23 149 394 1290 7264 32777 54755

Date: 2014-03-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59410 20308 2364 1047 359 50 6 0
OW 53 188 477 514 240 48 20 0
VODI 0 100 376 707 435 173 40 0
ODI 0 51 137 386 555 456 63 0
CDI 0 27 138 287 705 791 220 25
VCDI 0 0 10 300 1244 7657 30119 56962
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59410 20456 2613 1335 538 156 33 0
OW 53 75 258 401 186 85 10 0
VODI 0 62 207 448 295 159 25 0
ODI 0 22 133 302 304 254 43 0
CDI 0 23 110 317 557 734 223 92
VCDI 0 36 181 438 1658 7787 30134 56895


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