Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2014-03-13

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-03-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59524 20823 2404 1245 402 49 0 0
OW 52 256 480 448 186 79 2 0
VODI 0 136 290 506 286 182 29 0
ODI 0 16 157 585 385 342 57 0
CDI 0 0 52 423 574 796 141 0
VCDI 0 0 23 376 1692 4881 7149 4072
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-03-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60049 20641 1964 1024 438 79 0 0
OW 52 355 459 451 213 86 0 0
VODI 0 195 335 457 341 186 3 0
ODI 0 79 224 552 264 361 68 0
CDI 0 7 138 472 615 880 240 0
VCDI 0 0 34 545 1247 4626 7910 3510
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-03-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59512 20682 2481 1211 400 118 0 0
OW 52 208 426 679 196 76 0 0
VODI 0 36 170 863 395 175 0 0
ODI 0 8 34 382 632 317 57 0
CDI 0 0 22 218 815 1178 248 0
VCDI 0 0 0 25 776 4059 9033 3616
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-03-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55735 22754 3093 1521 382 107 0 0
OW 52 180 459 557 226 130 2 0
VODI 0 52 162 780 307 232 14 0
ODI 0 9 52 484 400 237 148 0
CDI 0 0 37 304 910 845 230 0
VCDI 0 0 0 66 813 5301 8816 3703
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55735 22911 3403 1914 544 261 3 0
OW 52 47 204 413 174 144 13 0
VODI 0 30 110 517 242 168 39 0
ODI 0 7 51 380 318 206 65 0
CDI 0 0 35 388 804 660 131 0
VCDI 0 0 0 100 956 5413 8959 3703

Date: 2014-03-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58392 21200 2328 819 391 53 0 0
OW 53 151 552 455 150 95 0 0
VODI 0 72 312 660 290 202 9 0
ODI 0 12 88 545 385 394 42 0
CDI 0 2 47 416 630 755 170 0
VCDI 0 0 33 402 1700 5035 7818 4442
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58392 21307 2702 1193 496 130 5 0
OW 53 72 313 371 135 114 2 0
VODI 0 44 204 484 264 172 26 0
ODI 0 11 64 390 300 239 42 0
CDI 0 3 38 300 547 527 125 0
VCDI 0 0 39 559 1804 5352 7839 4442

Date: 2014-03-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58736 20802 2574 1069 297 14 0 0
OW 52 79 424 756 190 55 0 0
VODI 0 33 157 832 356 190 1 0
ODI 0 1 83 337 636 463 21 0
CDI 0 0 42 270 822 961 197 0
VCDI 0 0 1 206 1490 4449 9396 3108
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58735 20521 2521 1465 514 194 3 0
OW 53 146 224 363 177 126 17 0
VODI 0 124 203 376 268 176 49 0
ODI 0 52 105 321 284 226 78 0
CDI 0 39 69 326 576 527 193 0
VCDI 0 33 159 619 1972 4883 9275 3108

Date: 2014-03-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60080 19841 2281 1186 238 10 0 0
OW 53 126 342 626 211 35 0 0
VODI 0 50 165 662 443 148 0 0
ODI 0 12 50 314 655 442 3 0
CDI 0 1 51 170 1011 812 61 0
VCDI 0 0 12 188 1298 4503 8609 4411
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60080 19640 2398 1536 374 127 0 0
OW 53 79 178 424 238 91 0 0
VODI 0 66 107 425 379 185 5 0
ODI 0 52 43 228 399 263 22 0
CDI 0 64 18 161 693 597 84 0
VCDI 0 129 157 372 1773 4687 8562 4411

Date: 2014-03-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59554 19874 2228 1219 382 79 0 0
OW 53 170 310 410 287 151 13 0
VODI 0 116 194 495 375 256 32 0
ODI 0 69 75 337 359 484 83 0
CDI 0 45 64 172 732 1155 370 0
VCDI 0 9 104 234 752 3986 8986 4886
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59554 19658 2396 1498 601 274 7 0
OW 53 98 166 279 223 119 16 0
VODI 0 95 122 325 281 261 40 0
ODI 0 61 75 248 272 316 65 0
CDI 0 64 35 211 513 713 288 0
VCDI 0 307 181 306 997 4428 9068 4886


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