Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-03-13

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-03-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59524 20895 2445 1245 402 49 0 0
OW 52 307 510 458 186 79 2 0
VODI 0 208 321 536 286 182 29 0
ODI 0 289 276 645 390 345 58 0
CDI 0 23 107 572 649 925 180 5
VCDI 0 1 44 482 2626 8979 31132 51604
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-03-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60049 20697 2015 1037 438 79 0 0
OW 52 407 468 473 214 86 0 0
VODI 0 262 359 477 353 190 3 0
ODI 0 182 240 563 290 379 68 0
CDI 0 285 169 519 690 1082 290 10
VCDI 0 85 184 818 2007 8996 32719 49813
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-03-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59512 20805 2555 1224 400 118 0 0
OW 52 280 435 700 199 76 0 0
VODI 0 328 226 889 408 179 0 0
ODI 0 80 119 429 669 336 59 0
CDI 0 3 60 325 965 1342 364 23
VCDI 0 0 15 178 1447 8493 33303 50452
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-03-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55735 22853 3130 1521 382 107 0 0
OW 52 237 483 562 226 130 2 0
VODI 0 130 177 790 308 236 14 0
ODI 0 146 139 525 405 249 163 0
CDI 0 20 95 383 943 997 420 21
VCDI 0 0 39 247 1390 9221 34171 50399
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55735 23058 3451 1915 544 261 3 0
OW 52 80 222 419 174 144 13 0
VODI 0 99 121 525 242 170 39 0
ODI 0 128 131 414 318 220 82 0
CDI 0 21 94 461 826 794 329 25
VCDI 0 0 44 294 1550 9351 34304 50395

Date: 2014-03-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58392 21244 2357 819 391 53 0 0
OW 53 193 580 460 150 95 0 0
VODI 0 126 336 672 290 202 9 0
ODI 0 63 100 564 385 407 43 0
CDI 0 96 83 424 656 895 291 46
VCDI 0 2 135 655 2358 8249 30903 54271
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58392 21386 2751 1195 496 130 5 0
OW 53 101 337 378 135 114 2 0
VODI 0 84 218 498 264 172 26 0
ODI 0 49 70 405 300 261 44 0
CDI 0 76 53 302 570 651 290 64
VCDI 0 28 162 816 2465 8573 30879 54253

Date: 2014-03-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58736 20972 2642 1069 297 14 0 0
OW 52 125 540 774 190 55 0 0
VODI 0 36 182 911 363 190 1 0
ODI 0 1 84 385 658 489 26 0
CDI 0 0 42 323 893 1206 357 24
VCDI 0 0 1 306 1940 7856 35683 49625
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58735 20597 2548 1465 514 194 3 0
OW 53 175 259 364 177 126 17 0
VODI 0 153 227 388 268 176 49 0
ODI 0 74 120 338 284 258 101 0
CDI 0 63 86 347 595 801 415 42
VCDI 0 72 251 866 2503 8255 35482 49607

Date: 2014-03-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60080 19934 2330 1189 238 10 0 0
OW 53 186 378 638 211 35 0 0
VODI 0 137 250 708 444 148 0 0
ODI 0 12 59 379 669 454 3 0
CDI 0 1 51 233 1087 1017 136 35
VCDI 0 0 12 323 1819 7328 34338 52123
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60080 19708 2446 1539 374 127 0 0
OW 53 109 206 434 238 91 0 0
VODI 0 106 125 446 380 185 5 0
ODI 0 81 49 236 405 300 48 0
CDI 0 92 34 185 733 766 251 24
VCDI 0 174 220 630 2338 7523 34173 52134

Date: 2014-03-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59554 19935 2268 1219 382 79 0 0
OW 53 216 340 421 287 151 13 0
VODI 0 192 216 510 375 256 32 0
ODI 0 120 154 366 391 539 85 0
CDI 0 45 66 249 832 1356 507 9
VCDI 0 9 104 367 1470 7587 34665 51628
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59554 19747 2434 1502 601 274 7 0
OW 53 147 187 286 224 119 16 0
VODI 0 134 148 336 285 271 41 0
ODI 0 85 97 255 301 386 113 0
CDI 0 81 60 251 573 920 533 33
VCDI 0 323 222 502 1753 7998 34592 51604


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